With the economy in turmoil, many people have asked me what effect the turmoil will have on all the green initiatives I call for in Hot, Flat, and Crowded. This morning I was talking to my friend David Rothkopf, the energy expert at the Carnegie Endowment, and he put it this way: “Is this financial crisis going to be the end of green, or is green going to be how we end this financial crisis?” Really, that is the question of the hour.
The economic crisis could be the end of green, because without investment capital for research and development, and without confidence in the long-term health of the markets, it will be impossible for us to build a Clean Energy System or create the innovations that will enable us to bring alternative energy solutions to market and get them to scale. I shudder to think of that outcome.
But green may be how we end this financial crisis, because with the economy hitting bottom, everyone is going to be looking to be more cost-efficient in the way they live and do business, and that will mean demand for the most cost-saving energy efficient buildings, cars and heating and air conditioning systems is going to surely increase.
What we are seeing in this crisis is the need for a whole new financial architecture—and people are recognizing that some problems are just too big to solve unless we approach them systematically. As it is with our economy, so it is with our ecosystem: we need a new system, and we are going to have to think things through very carefully and make some hard choices to get it right.
Naturally, I am hoping that the economic crisis turns out to be the beginning of green—an opportunity to set the country and the planet right before it is too late. What do you think?
Ideas:
Tom, I agree that the need for truly visionary, focusing leadership is crucial to progress against what is coming at us, globally. I’ve read a lot of suggestions in this forum, most are pretty good, but with leadership like what we’ve had for the last eight years, and all the way back to Regan (whom I liked at the time), those of us us who see what is coming are simply doomed to go on “crying in the wilderness” like John the baptist, while the situation becomes increasingly dire.
If the US leadership chooses to give lip-service to real changes, focused on the future, perhaps someone else, like China or India will pick up on it. Personally, I doubt anyone would or could. Americans are uniquely “programmed” to take on the impossible challenges, dream the impossible dream, trial-and-error their way to success, and make what sacrifices are required to see the dream come true. Our leadership needs to stop holding us back. [Read Incredibly American, Zuckerman and Hatala. This describes who we are and why we’re “programmed” for the impossible challenge.]
If America were to take on this challenge as a nation, we would likely lead ourselves, with the rest of the world following, to a much more prosperous and satisfying future than even we dream of today. If we don’t choose to lead, I’m afraid we’re just going to have to wait for another savior to lead us away.
I’ve read a lot on the American Revolution, the sacrifices made by the first Americans and how they worked to create a truly new government by the people. We need to learn from these brave men and women. There came a time to choose to act, which was a terrifying choice (but fortunately, the British were pushing for the Americans/Colonists to choose), and the colonists chose to become Americans and make the sacrifices required. It wasn’t easy, but it worked out well. Now is our time. The threat is there and is real, most of the challenges have been defined. The consequences of action and inaction are relatively defined as well. Dare we?
I remember a set of 4 words from Walt Disney, a true visionary leader, which he used to encourage young people. They were: “DREAM, BELIEVE, DARE, ACT.” We need to re-discover this in ourselves.
December 27th 2008, 4:22 pm
Please be aware of the latest developments of Blacklight Power . Check their Website at Blacklightpower.com . They have recently (12/11) completed a commercial contract with Estacado Energy services licensing their technology for use.
The Blacklight process provides exceptionally cheap, absolutely clean, energy that eliminates the dependence on mideast oil and provides a basis for job creation for the building the new infrastructure to transform our energy needs from fossil fuel to a hydrino energy source. A truely integrated concept. The time for change is now!
You have the pulpit - please use it.
December 26th 2008, 12:30 pm
I'm reading Hot Flat and Crowded now..part way through it.
We have experienced sub zero weather for the past week here in the Kansas City area and extreme winter conditions in much of the rest of the country. (This is "Global Warming?)
Perhaps Al Gore is correct, but I suspect that science has not yet arrived at what the effect our contamination of the atmosphere has been on climate.
When they figure that out maybe they'll have a handle on predicting our financial ups and downs.
December 23rd 2008, 3:18 am
Unless I'm mistaken, the last time this country did any voluntary belt-tightening was on the occasion of World War 2, over 60 years ago. In that situation, the menace was clear and visible, as were its effects. Having lived so fat as a culture since that time, with generations now raised in an entitlement culture, along with a media that somehow refuses to cover with any depth the "twin terrors" of climate change and peak oil, can we at all reasonably expect this era of Americans to make the kind of systemic change that going green in any meaningful way would entail? I really don't think so- but I've got a 16-year-old son inheriting this mess, and I hope to God I'm wrong.
November 24th 2008, 10:20 pm
One of the problems this economic crisis is creating in Florida is lack of funds to pay for rebates that are used to entice people into going green. These rebates were supposed to entice people into buying solar water heaters, helping offset some of the cost.
Problem is, they're not getting their rebate because the state has less tax revenues coming in than before. They ran out of rebate money and now everyone is on a waiting list. That isn't going to make it easier to encourage people to go green.
Good article summing up one of our local reporter's experiences in getting his rebate (he's still waiting).....
http://www.tcpalm.com/news/2008/nov/17/the-ed...
November 22nd 2008, 8:27 pm
“How to Pimp a Shrimp”, sustainable business initiatives.
Live the American Dream by going Green. No manipulation required. Say it as it is and follow through. In Rotterdam they say; No words but deeds! And indeed two inspiring eco-business models have originated from there.
Surely, if you can deliver sustainable shrimps and an eco night-club, there are no boundaries to what can be done to seriously reduce or stop the damage done to our environment. And creating fantastic business opportunities with huge returns on investment$.
Mr. Friedman, have you written something about the Feed-In Tariff?
http://www.hermannscheer.de/en/images/stories...
Sustainable Tropical Shrimps
http://www.happyshrimp.nl/dotcontrol/filemana...
Green is the new Cool
http://www.happyshrimp.nl/dotcontrol/filemana...
…innovative marketing...
http://www.happyshrimp.nl/dotcontrol/filemana...
…and know how to throw a Party...
http://www.sustainabledanceclub.com/
…with some herbal (green) XTC !
(For the neo-cons and the politicians from the Ministry* of God)
http://www.conscious.nl/page/shop/browse/a/ca...
* ‘Ministry’, refers to George Orwell’s modern classic, ‘1984’.
“They were the homes of the four Ministries between which the entire apparatus of government was divided: the Ministry of Truth, which concerned itself with news, entertainment, education, and the fine arts; the Ministry of Peace, which concerned itself with war; the Ministry of Love, which maintained law and order; and the Ministry of Plenty, which was responsible of economic affairs”.
November 20th 2008, 7:38 am
Solar, a great opportunity for America.
Maximize the number of American homes with Solar Water and Solar Electric.
The congress of United States of America and Presidents of the United States have signed into law over the years many bills to assist fellow Americans in purchasing solar water heating units and solar electric generating units and as of today there is another congressional bill passed to extend and continue the same. I wish to make it perfectly clear that I support the idea of assisting American home owners in purchasing Solar Water and Solar Electric units. I also want to make it perfectly clear that I feel that the U.S. Government has in it's wisdom overlooked the one most important step of insuring that the American home owner do not remove these solar units from their homes once they have received the government assistances. Please, I'm not speaking about contracts to ENFORCE, PUNISH and financially bind home owners. Even though contracts are necessary. I'm speaking of years after the installation and the solar units start their decay process and normal maintenance requirements are needed. That's when some home owners simply remove these slightly warn units for dumb and sometimes financial reasons.
Once upon a time:
many years ago America did not have the Electric power system as we know it today. Many homes and business owners stepped up and creating an electric cooperatives to share the costs of building and maintaining the Electric grid systems for themselves and their fellow Americans so all could move into the industrial age. I'd imagine all America is proud of these broad minded people for their contribution. As they saw it each Individual home owner or business owner could not afford their own Electric power system and the maintenance of same. I make the point that the Solar Electric and Solar Water for individual home owners is not-affordable as outlined today, even with the subsidizes. In order to make these solar units affordable for home owners and to motivate more home owners to install solar water and solar electric, there is a need for, “ lifetime maintenance” of said systems. I place the proposition that Utility companies should maintain these home installed solar units. Utility companies are directly profiting from these home owners installed solar units. The utility companies are the repair specialist for the Electricity that the home owners use. This would solve the maintenance need of solar units. All home owned solar installations would stay put on the home owners property serving all Americans as congress intended and always be producing electricity and hot water forever. There is the answer you should be looking for to make the solar units affordable for home owners. And just think how the US Congress really did spend that money to helped all American home owners, not the manufacturers of and installers of solar water and solar electric units. Lets not forget those handyman types that come along and remove those units, throwing perfectly good material in land fills and doing this at the whim of the unhappy home owner.
As you and I know the Utility companies require financing for this little maintenance task. I suggest a small fee of lets say, 0.20 cents plus or minus a few pennies for that task from each and every none-commercial utility user. This will be such a tinkling damn of costs for each to assist in helping all home owners including themselves. I remind you of, “Once upon a time”.
Think about it. No more home owners removing solar water units because of simple water leaks and that sort. No more removing a solar electric panels because some new home owner dislikes the look of panels on the new home they just purchased. This is such a simple procedure and could be very easily managed and profitable to the Electric company and would reduce the need for some expansion of power lines and building more external power plants. I also have reason to believe that MANY, MANY more home owners would install both Solar water and Solar electric on their homes when they fully understood that the costs were affordable.
I would like to make the point that I have both solar electric and solar water on my home here in Sun City AZ. Some will say, You are suggesting this for yourself. Yes I am and I also suggesting this hoping you will put solar on your home too. The solar on my house is for myself and you, my neighbor. If I offend you with this idea and you cannot support this idea, please come up with an idea for America yourself. I also wish to point out that four (4) of my neighbors have removed their solar water units from their homes. They tell me, because of the high cost of repairing a water leaks. This is a fact, sad but true. Please, don't let such an easy solution slip by.
Leranzo Campbell Retired M/Sgt USAF -- Sun City AZ
November 19th 2008, 2:49 pm
All the biggest problems we face (the economy, the auto industry, oil dependency, global warming, the Iraq War) have one common solution, and it is actually the opposite of a carbon tax:
MAKE ALL GREEN ENERGY TECHNOLOGY 100% TAX FREE.
It is that simple. No sales or income tax on revenue from clean, renewable energy or technology (like plug-in, flex fuel hybrids) that radically decrease oil consumption. No capital gains tax on companies stocks and dividends in proportion to the percentage of their revenue that comes from green energy technology. That simple policy will supercharge private investment in clean and renewable energy technologies... on the order of $300 billion dollars per year, or more. That includes new investment in the US auto industry, as investors see a path towards a increasingly tax free auto industry. It will encourage oil and coal companies, and utilities, to voluntarily go green, in order to escape taxes.
It will keep the cost of energy as cheap as possible by lowering the price of green energy, creating massive new green energy competition that reduces demand for oil and coal. Cheap energy will in turn stimulate every other sector of the economy.
And NO FEDERAL SPENDING IS REQUIRED. It does not cost one dollar upfront. A focussed tax cut on this one sector of the economy can lift all others by keeping the price of energy low for all, and producing massive domestic employment. A tax cut here will produce a massive tax revenue surge from the rest of the economy. Tax freedom for green energy will make the US the world leader in green energy investment in Obama's first term -- in fact, most world green energy investment will go through the US for the tax advantage.
So forget Obama's $150 billion federal "investment" over 10 years -- that is PEANUTS compared to what is needed and what the private sector can do if we make green energy technology tax free. And puh-lease forget the stupid carbon tax and cap-and-trade proposals that do not really work and will only raise the price of energy, and further depress the economy. A carbon tax is economic suicide, and entirely unnecessary when you can get the same tax differential, and accomplish the same shift with an entrepreneurial boom by making green energy tax free.
A 100% tax cut for renewable, clean energy technologies is the cheapest and most effective stimulus we could provide right now for our struggling economy in general, and for the auto industry in particular. And it is the absolute best and fastest way to achieve our goal of creating a clean, green economy.
But enough. If you wish, read more at GreenEnergyTaxCuts.com
November 19th 2008, 2:03 am
I've enjoyed several of Mr. Friedman's books and highly respect his opinions on global politics. His work on globalization has provided great understanding to the world. However, concerning his green ideas I worry that he may be too optimistic and lacking in understanding of the interplay between basic economics and the need for global environmental standards. As he urges the country to adopt some sort of cap and trade policy to support a revolution in green technology, I worry that his optimism may exceed the realities of the marketplace. Without global environmental standards, I worry that Mr. Friedman's ideas will not produce meaningful results. Unless other countries (China in particular) agree to implement similar environmental standards (which they certainly won't if trade competitors like Vietnam don't) to the US, unilaterally adopting much harsher green standards will further weaken America's competitiveness globally. I wholly support Mr. Friedman's desire for a greener world. However, I worry that his arguments in this area may reflect naivete. I want to see a much greener world too, and I think there is a role for the government to support R&D so that some day green technology will be able to compete with fossil fuels. Without global standards, however, the US will be at a competitive disadvantage with many of its trading partners.
One thought might be to try to determine the marginal cost of implementing green standards on certain products being imported from polluting countries. Then the US would assess a tariff on certain products that is explicitly linked to the lack of environmental standards in that given polluting country. Perhaps that could help convince polluting countries to implement tougher environmental standards.
November 15th 2008, 2:52 pm
Your diagnosis of the challenges facing us is awesome. However, you seem to be unaware that the solution to the major problems you articulate is located down the Jersey turnpike in Cranberry, NJ. Please check out the recent developments at BLACKLIGHT POWER as contained on their Website blacklightpwer.com. Dr. Randy Mills has demonstrated and validated a new fuel source that solves the economic, environmental,energy and national security issues you have so cogently framed. If we need to move "with all deliberate haste" it's time for you to promote specific solutions. BLACKLIGHT is America at its entrepreneurial and exceptional best. The private sector developing solutions without taxpayer dollars. Please take the time to understand the potential that exists in Einstein's shadow.
Ned Hogan
Sun Valley, Idaho
November 13th 2008, 1:49 pm
Why couldn't the government sell bonds to fund alternative energy projects?
People could choose to invest in these bonds, which would offer a
guaranteed if modest (4%?) rate of return in the bond of their choice.
You could invest with cash or in your IRA, 401K or 529 plan.
I think this idea would appeal to people who are very committed to
alternative and renewable energy as well as to people who have
never given much thought to energy but are very weary of all the
volatility on wall street lately and would welcome a guaranteed rate
of return and a promise that their savings would never go down.
Here are some ideas for bonds:
Solar bond - Government would buy and install photovoltaic cells
at various locations (schools, business, private residences). Owners of buildings
would enter into a long term contract with the government with
fixed rates for electricity used. Excess electricity generated at sites
could be sold back to local power companies to meet local need.
Wind bond - Government would install and run wind turbines selling
power through existing grid network.
Amerifuel bond - Government would build gas stations to sell
ethanol and biodiesel.
Carcass bond - Would fund additional plants to turn animal carcasses
into fuel oil. (It's already being done with turkey carcasses.)
Digestor bond - Would fund projects to extract methane from manure.
I think this would be a good way to take control of our energy future.
It could lesson the taxpayer burden of funding alternative energy projects,
and save the porkbarrel dollars that will inevitably be required to
get alternative energy funding to pass. It would give the American people
a safe and guaranteed return on their investment for retirement or college.
It feels like the right time for some big ideas to get our country moving towards
energy independance, cleaner and renewable fuel, and a culture
where modest, steady, SAVINGS is what most people strive for.
I think this idea could help. Thank you for your consideration.
November 13th 2008, 11:39 am
I wish your book had done a better job describing the Carbon Cycle. In the long run,say 50 years, it doesn't matter what you do with carbon that is above ground. It is only the dirty carbon from underground that matters. Whether trees die and rot, or are burned the result is natural. If you make boards, you tie up Carbon for decades but it eventually goes back to the atmosphere. Cows burp now, but buffalos burped long before them. Termites are the worst methane offenders,but that is all nature. We need to get rid of coal,oil and natural gas. If the permafrost thaws and releases methane, heaven help us. Global Weirding got us.
No tax or restrictions should ever be placed on fuels that are produced from stuff above the ground.
November 12th 2008, 9:13 pm
With our new hope ushered in as the president-elect, I foresee the dawn of a new reasoning in America. One in which going green is forged through with the sound clarity and resolve that perhaps our nation's best cash crop may one day arise again to it's predominant place of being a beneficial, viable, and renewable resource that even our forefather's took stock in. I'm wondering if the decriminalization and taxation of marijuana might bring solace to our current crises? We could produce biomass fuels with it, and also regorge our society with wealth, prosperity, clean living, and a rebirth of newly progressive American led ideologies.
http://www.angelfire.com/ca7/ddc/Fuel.html
http://economics.about.com/od/incometaxestaxc...
November 12th 2008, 5:51 pm
Dear Mr Friedman,
Please watch "HERE COMES THE SUN" @ www.youtube.com/vprointernational.
Hermann Scheer, a member of German parliament, President of EUROSTAR (the European Association for Renewable Energy) and General Chairman of the World Council for Renewable Energy, together with Prince Hassan bin Talal of Jordan, explain how solar energy will transform our world within a decade from now. Enjoy.
Kind regards
November 12th 2008, 4:15 pm
The end of green? No! The start of making green with clean energy.
Okay, my big idea for Chapter 18 is a happy ending concluding with energy independence for the United States of America. The end of Chapter 18 is the beginning of cheap and clean renewable energy. I wrote a plan to get to there from here. Everything in it is workable and uses technology available today.
My name is Jack Talbert, and I am the CEO of United Renewable Power and Electric, in Manhattan, Kansas.
Whilst I watched the Daily Show with Jon Stewart, Mr. Friedman appeared as a guest. He summarized the same problem we all know, no one is making a contribution to a clean alternative energy as it is not cost effective as compared to current dirty sources. Jon Stewart presesnted the question to Mr. Friedman, "Why aren't there people in thier garages working on a solution, like what happened with the computer industry?"
There are, and I am one. I have a solution but no funds to move my designs forward into the market. The technology is here right now, I'm looking at it as I pen this post. I need help, and not just from those who speak of why we don't, but from one who would speak of why 'I' personally don't. The technology is there, and every day when I see what I have wrought with my hands into being, I ask myself, "Why are people allowing this huge pile of cash returns and clean energy to lay unused?"
Is it arrogance? Is it ignorance? Is it apathy? The technology is right there taunting me, laughing at me. I know what it is capable of, and I know what I am capable of.
So, as for Chapter 18, it could end with 'and I (Thomas Friedman) helped to save the world by bringing forth this existing technology for the sake of children everywhere'; or it could end 'and I have done nothing, but for my own personal gain and glory'.
I thank you for reading this post.
Jack Talbert
805 Mission Ave
Manhattan, KS 66502
785-280-1564
jack@talbertcorp.com
As always the password is green.
November 12th 2008, 12:53 am
A quick idea - consumer tax credits for investments that save energy or reduce our carbon footprints. The credit should reduce out of pocket costs for investing in appropriate technologies and should be based upon the long term savings we provide to the benefit of the environment.
November 11th 2008, 9:15 pm
Actually, I'm pleased to say the financial crisis actually spurred one of our major "go green" decisions.
We had been considering installing a modern heating and cooling system in our decidedly stodgy 1930s-era farmhouse, which had no air conditioning at all, and was heated with a fuel-fed boiler/radiator system that consumed enough fuel and electricity to power the Titanic.
With our monthly fuels hovering just over $1,000 per month for the five months of fall/winter weather, keeping our fuel-fed system would be fiscally demented. Adding to the mess, the credit card we used only for fuel was maxed out and unusuable. Keeping our home warm was becoming an exercise in How To Bankrupt Your Household.
We needed to do something quickly, and opted for a geothermal heating/cooling system. It was more expensive to install than a traditional heat pump because of the wells that needed to be drilled, but -- environmental benefits aside -- in the long run, it actually made more sense for us financially. It took the heating fuel monkey off our backs, and with the efficiency of the system (running the system at full speed takes less energy than one of the electric floor units we used to heat some of the cold spots in the house), we stood to reduce our electric bill as well.
All total, we estimate we'll recover the costs of the sytem in three to five years -- a worthwhile investment, good for the earth, good for our economy, and good for our state of mind.
November 10th 2008, 2:53 pm
It is absolutely not the "End of Green". As a commercial developer with a green sensibility, I have really seen "Green" become a requirement of new facilities for companies. This is not out of some sort of corporate guilt or sense of responsibility (although these certainly account for many early adopters), but rather the REAL value to the cashflow or balance sheet that companies are seeing.
I am developing industrial buildings for a global client that often exceed 1,500,000 sf each and one is on track to achieve LEED Gold certification. Does the building look much different? No, but it will use almost half of the energy of similar buildings at a negligible additional upfront cost (less than 1%). This gets the attention of the boardroom in times like this.
Additionally, many investors recognize the future value that these buildings will have as energy costs continue to rise. Some investors are already asking "is the building LEED certified?" before they even ask the price.
Green is here to stay.
November 10th 2008, 11:14 am
The IT boom happened organically, as easy access to credit allowed western corporations to invest heavily in R&D and Innovation. Given the recent tightening of credit, I find it less likely that an ET boom will gain much momentum. What other policy mechanisms could the government use to stimulate such an outcome?
November 10th 2008, 12:48 am
Another idea to promote: using the US consumer-based economy to forge global change through a potentially elegant public policy to create a "carbon filter" system. Carbon filtering, at its structural roots would impose a tariff on any imported good based on its carbon intensity. A Federal-level department would be established to review and assign estimated carbon intensities across classes of goods and services. Domestically, producers can either be taxed (the more optimal policy, economically) or forced to buy carbon permits in cap and trade scheme of some sort. The carbon filter effectively levels the playing field for domestic manufacturers (and removes the incentive to outsource manufacturing to locales with less restrictive carbon regimes). Let's use the strength of the American consumer to show some real global leadership.
Below are excerpts from an advocacy paper expanding on the idea. I wrote this for a business school class in Business and Government Strategy in the Fall of 2007:
INTRODUCTION
Climate change, whether believed to be deleterious to Earth’s inhabitants or not, has become inexorably ensconced in public policy debate. The push to reduce carbon emissions is generally regarded as a virtuous goal, but remains stubbornly intractable on a global scale due to the economic and societal consequences of action. While climate change policy is traditionally viewed as a multi-lateral, global issue, this paper will advocate that, given a carefully-crafted policy, the United States is uniquely positioned to make environmentally-beneficial worldwide changes in carbon-based behavior while protecting domestic economic interests through unilateral action. This paper will, for debate’s sake, assume that some form of carbon-reducing policy will be adopted in the United States in the near future.
STAKEHOLDERS
Climate change policy has many stakeholders, ranging from government entities to private businesses and from national to international concerns. The most relevant stakeholders on which to focus for this analysis will be United States-based, as the policy prescription is fundamentally unilateral. Certainly, a full analysis of the issue would include foreign entities to comprehensively predict what reaction the suggested policy would cause. The United States Government at the Federal level would be the first stakeholder of concentration, as it alone holds the pervasive power to enact provisions necessary to enforce a national taxation scheme.
CARBON CONTROL BACKGROUND
In traditional carbon control regimes, a nation, or group of nations collectively decides to reduce carbon emissions using a limiting construct, such as a cap-and-trade system. Effectively placing a ceiling on the total carbon emitted from the group, a cap-and-trade system requires market participants to obtain carbon credits from a specialized market trading in carbon derivative instruments. Another carbon control regime is a carbon tax, where companies are taxed based on the amount of carbon emitted. Modulating the tax rate has the effect of reducing or increasing the amount of carbon the group emits, analogous to the monetary policy tool of increasing or decreasing the money supply (and its effect on interest rates). Producers operating at the marginal rate will discontinue emitting when the tax rate increases (either by innovation to reduce carbon output, simply by electing to exit the business or to increase prices). Although both systems have merit, we advocate a carbon tax control regime as a base upon which we will suggest significant modifications.
THE CASE FOR THE UNITED STATES
The United States, with roughly 15.5% of the world’s share of imports , possesses an incredibly unique opportunity for global climate leadership. The adoption of a universal carbon tax regime could induce substantial behavioral change across the world. The universal carbon tax establishes a tax rate for the carbon footprint of each good and service, and levies taxes proportional to carbon intensity. This applies uniformly to imports, exports, and domestically-directed production. Under a traditional carbon control regime, the manufacturers under the regime are penalized relative to other world producers located in permissive carbon control regions. For the durable goods business, we would face competitors with a much lower tax cost structure, and would be immediately placed at a disadvantage. The company could continue to locate operations in the United States, under the more stringent carbon control, and compete with higher costs, or relocate operations to a country with relaxed emissions standards. These choices are desirable choices to give to American companies, already struggling valiantly to compete globally. Instead, a comprehensive system of carbon footprint enumeration is called for, identifying to some degree of precision the amount of carbon emissions required to produce and deliver any good or service. Based on the system estimation of the total carbon footprint of the good, a tariff will be imposed. Similar to an import tax for international companies importing into the United States, the system will generate parity across multiple national borders. With the market share of imports the United States maintains, the majority of companies cannot simply elect to abandon the United States market, but rather will be compelled to comply with the United States carbon import tax. Because the tax is the same (in US dollar terms) across countries for identical products, no country is treated unfairly as a result of the new regime. This fixes the longstanding quandary wherein countries have an incentive to defect from global climate change treaties due to self-interest. This unilateral action by the United States could change the course of climate change as the world understands it.
Revisiting the case for unilateral action in context of the durable goods manufacturers in the United States, we can project that the manufacturers would remain at parity with their international and domestic rivals using identical processes and inputs. Carbon emission intensity would likely vary across participants, however, giving incentives to those low emission manufacturers in the form of lower taxes. This incentive would presumably induce the use of more green processes to produce goods as the reduced tax exposure benefit outweighs the cost of implementation. The question remains, “who bears the cost of this taxation?” Upon cursory analysis, the manufacturers are identified as the group who bears the cost. This is incomplete, as the customers buying the goods will almost certainly see a partial effect reflected in higher prices. Unfortunately, this is a necessary evil. Fortunately, it affects manufacturers fairly, both domestically and internationally. For those companies that operate solely in domestic markets (e.g., an electric utility), the tax will be applied evenly based on carbon output, again adhering to the doctrine of fairness.
THE CASE FOR THE WORLD
The world has generally faced persistent resistance to a global standard for emissions, including opposition from the United States. The potential redistribution of wealth and standard of living has significant consequences for a diverse world. Those in fortunate circumstances (the United States being one such country) have a vested interest in protecting their citizens from higher costs due to the country’s current carbon complexion. Global summits, such as Kyoto and Bali, continue to stimulate debate but fall short of the goals promulgated by their constituents. Because of the United States’ size and economic power in the world, the elegant solution of a universal carbon tax regime manifests. No other nation can stimulate such change on a unilateral basis, effectively bypassing global policy debates. The simplicity of the system is simultaneously its strength.
DRAWBACKS
Drawbacks to such a regime do exist. Unquestionably, the administrative overhead required to quantify the carbon inputs to all imported goods, catalog the carbon results, and collect taxes correspondingly is heavy. The identification process would require a working knowledge of foreign-based manufacturing operations (the ability to verify the filing of a foreign country’s firm regarding carbon intensity). Double taxation issues also arise if another country were to adopt a similar system.
TAX REVENUE
As with cap-and-trade and national carbon tax programs, the universal carbon tax regime generates significant tax revenue. This revenue could be used in several ways: a) as an offset to the individual income tax (a revenue neutral proposal), b) to fund research and development in the field of energy efficiency and climate control technology, c) to erase shortfalls in other budget programs. I advocate for a mixture of options (a) and (b). The country is desperately in need of funding for climate control technology, and the offset blunts higher prices faced by consumers due to the higher tax structure.
CONCLUDING REMARKS
No larger opportunity for real environmental change exists. The United States can take a policy lead that others must follow, yet respect. The system’s conceptual adoption by the world hinges on its explicit fairness. Treat all as equals in the eyes of carbon – no special treatment, domestic or international, importer or exporter. The amount of goods imported by the United States effectively allows it to act as a filter of carbon, placing such an incentive on manufacturers to reduce carbon output that real change is achieved. The simplicity of the system lies in its predominantly unilateral nature. No multi-lateral climate treaty, containing every incentive for participants to defect, is required, and no major competitive disadvantage to American business is created. The time to lead is now.
November 9th 2008, 6:51 pm
In your book, it would have been better if you had challenged some of the traditional orthodoxies and looked at the issue of Hot, Flat and Crowded in fresh perspectives
The Nature unlike us humans ensures progress/survival/sustainability through constant renewal. While we measure progress in terms of how we have been able to increase the life expectancy of our population, nature ensures sustainable life by maintaining a young stock. A plant under stress immediately flowers so that even if the plant dies, the seed of life can germinate again when the conditions are favourable. Nature does not waste its efforts in empty boast but goes about ensuring life is endless through a cycle of life and death.
Going by that, the so-called developed world with its ageing population is hopelessly doomed (socially and economically) whether you invent green energy or not. The only way out appears to be to allow more immigration. Rather than try to make more and more modern cities, the would-be empty cities of the (materially) developed world can provide shelter to the immigrants from the lesser (materially) developed world. This will help to preserve nature in these people exporting nations while at the same time bring about balance to the world population. After all, if you look at the manner in which the white population (Spanish, Latin, Anglo-Saxon) had exploded and expanded right across the globe since the 18th century, it far out numbers the figures of Chinese and Indian population explosion.
Going Green will also require development of new measuring tools not just new financial architecture. For instance, agriculture researchers have till recently been obsessed with improving productivity without realizing that what human beings need more is nutritious food. Seldom do they pause to reflect that we eat our food to gain nourishment and not just to fill the barns or do futures trade.
November 9th 2008, 3:45 pm
Dear Mr. Friedman,
In reading Hot, Flat, and Crowded I was struck by the omission of two subjects that would appear to reinforce and extend your excellent book. The first is the work of William McDonough, a pioneering designer of green buildings, and the author, along with Michael Braungart, a German chemist, of Cradle to Cradle. McDonough and Braungart make the case that industrial designers must look to nature, where there is no waste--everything is recycled--and make the eventual reuse/recycling of their products an integral part of the products’ design. To quote from their WEB site:
Cradle to Cradle maps the lineaments of McDonough and Braungart’s new design paradigm, offering practical steps on how to innovate within todays economic environment. Part social history, part green business primer, part design manual, the book makes plain that the re-invention of human industry is not only within our grasp, it is our best hope for a future of sustaining prosperity.
Second, there is no mention of the nascent movement in economics the goes under the name “steady state economy”. This is an attempt to supplant the current economic model, which assumes and depends on constant, continuous, open-ended growth, and which has been possible because energy has been cheap and abundant and because natural resources have been exploited as if they had no end, with a new model that recognizes the impossibility endless growth and makes the sustainability of economic activity primary. See the web site of the Center for the Advancement of the Steady State Economy
I am looking forward to reading the new chapter!
November 7th 2008, 3:17 pm
I'm with Michael Cambon: we must make controlling the birth rate a priority, as I've pointed out in other posts for Chapter 18. It's the most important long-term issue for sustainability. Tom, as I've written elsewhere on this site, you only addressed "Crowded" in pointing out how it intersects with "Hot" and "Flat." But we really can do something about it in the long term. It's a multi-generational global project for the human race.
As I have also written, I think the flattening you describe will probabably help curb birth rates in developing countries on it's own. But that won't be enough. Education, especially of women, and industrialization seem to reduce birth rates. Italy has gotten to below replacement rate (around 2.1 children per woman of child-bearing age).
This will lead to hoots and hollers from people who will see an economic contraction resulting from this birth rate reduction. Two points: 1) we have seen a tremendous increase in productivity over the past 30 years that has translated into more stuff being produced by fewer people. This should take care of worker shortages. 2) We should remember that an economy produces the goods and services necessary to keep us living and functioning in a society. We can change how we measure the economy from straight GDP to per capita GDP. This will give us a better idea of how we're really doing in raising standards of living. A smaller GDP can be better if it is produced by and serves a relatively smaller population. A larger GDP may not be enough to keep a population going that is growing at a greater pace (as China and India are well aware).
I would be concerned about using a figure like 1.9B as a target. That's about a 67% reduction from today's population. The Thirty Years War caused a one-third reduction in the population of what is now Germany, and the famine in the 1840's (caused in large part by "free market" ideology on the part of the Peele government) depopulated Ireland by about one-quarter. Both are considered disasters.
Although I know you don't mean it that way, your target along with "an aggressive program of global birth control" will sound like the "final solution" to many, especially in the developing countries whose cooperation we'll need. It will also discourage many in the developed world, and scare many others.
Twenty years ago, the idea was to push developing countries through demographic transition as quickly as possible to a post-industrial state. I think this is the case, but it's something that they need to buy into, not have forced upon them, just as we need to go on the all out education program here in this country that I wrote of a couple of posts down. Buy-in from stakeholders is an essential first step, or you'll be doomed to brutal failure.
November 7th 2008, 2:32 am
Tom,
I'm sure my view is controversial; hopefully provocative...
I consider an aggressive program of global birth control to be the single most important step toward solving our energy, climate and environmental sustainability challenges. I consider the planet simply can't sustain 6+ billion humans. Until we have better numbers, I believe we should set a global population target of 1.9Bn, roughly the global population in 1900. I fear any ET strategy that fails to reduce global population a fools errand.
just my $0.02,
November 6th 2008, 8:51 pm
We've been giving suggestions about technology and conservation and legislation. But the “End of Green” is really about making “Green” the new normal. It's about making “Green” so ubiquitous that it's simply how we do business and how we live our lives. When Americans get the right information, they tend to make the right decision.
President-elect Obama ran a brilliant campaign using communications technology to its utmost. He got his message out to tens of millions of voters, many of whom hadn't ever participated before – people in their thirties and forties, not just the very young. This is the kind of effort we need to mobilize public opinion to do the right thing.
Green needs to be defined as “smart,” and dirty needs to be defined as “Dumb.” Dumb energy. Dumb construction. Dumb growth. We wouldn't pump three or four gallons of gasoline out onto the ground after filling our tank because that would be dumb. Yet that's how we're running our economy and living our lives.
People need to be shown that what they see as convenience now is really very costly waste. They need to be shown that what other people do affects their finances. Those SUV drivers are driving up everyone's gas prices, not just the SUV owners'. Those who can't afford to weatherize their houses are causing everyone's energy costs. In the first case, it would cause a public movement to incorporate the costs of operating large vehicles into the purchase and even the registration price. In the latter, it might cause people to see the value in helping their low-income neighbors winterize through low- or zero-interest loans or even grants.
In any event, a better understanding of the real problems we're up against would mobilize the American public to do what needs to be done to create a better future. It would allow us to ratchet up taxes on fossil fuels and harmful behaviors. It would allow us to make the expenditures we need to set us on the right track. A major public education campaign would lead to behavior in the overall best interest.
Eventually, the efficiency and the higher standard of living these efforts create will speak for themselves, and become incorporated in “normal” behavior. We'd see our sustainable way of life as smart, not “Green.” That would be the “End of Green.” Having reached its desired end, the word “Green” would become obsolete.
November 6th 2008, 7:28 pm
When news first broke that an economic crisis was occuring requiring a huge "bailout'' I slept a few hours less. That night, I actually left my bed, sat at the kitchen table and wrote out a "plan". The writing was given the next day to my local Obama headquarter. Much to my amazement, the following day, Thomas Freidman was on morning TV, espousing outlines of similar ideas. Since the need was there to shore up the economy with billions of dollars, why not use this opportunity to launch a "green industry".
As a real estate attorney, I understand very well how an owner will soon stop paying on a mortgage if the final result will mean he has paid far more money for a home than it is worth in the market. On the other hand, if the government offers to retrofit the home with green technology that will reduce his electric bill from say $200 to $100 or less, and if in the process, the retrofitted house increases in value by say $50,000 because of the retrofit, the owner will be much more inclined to stay and pay. To this could be refinements such as government induced principal reduction, as required,and sharing of any future equity profits. The bottom line however, would be a way of introducing a viable "greening" industry which would aleviate dependence on carbon energy, help greatly with climate change and dig us out of an economic hole with long lasting beneficial impacts for the global population. Thanks Mr. Freidman. You have made me think that all of us are thinkers...if we try.
November 6th 2008, 2:58 pm
I live in Scotland not the sunniest part of the world, I have just finished building three new ECO homes, with geothermal space and water heating, with this for every 1kw of energy used to power the system I get 5kw of heat back.
This is supplemented by solar water heating for the summer; don't need the geothermal between April and September. The windows are triple glazed and the insulation is sheep’s wool, which has some very good properties with no irritants.
The homes need no gas supply and cooking is electric, we have ample hot water and a surplus of heat which we put back in to the ground. All I need to do now is get every builder to follow this example.
November 5th 2008, 7:28 pm
In 1993, I listened to a discussion forum with Lester M. Salomon and read articles in the paper about unemployment. I wrote many letters to public policy officials, the Secretary of Labor and elected representatives about the idea I had.
Our tax policy should reward people who invest in human capital. Every taxpayer should be able to deduct a percentage of education expenses that they have paid to an accredited educational institution, with the amount of the deduction based on the proportion of one's taxable income which is invested in education. We would then give the tax cuts to those who make the greatest investment of their resources in America's future competitive standing in the global marketplace.
It would be an easy tax break to administer. Cumbersome education vouchers and other programs would not be needed and no new bureaucracy would be required. In fact, some bureaucracy could be reduced, saving tax dollars which could fund the tax break.
It could be flexible and adjusted year to year. Just as we do when filing itemized deductions for medical expenses, we would calculate our eligibility based on percentage of out taxable income. Greater incentives would lower the percentage, giving a tax break to more taxpayers. I'm not familiar with corporate tax law, but I'm sure something similar could be implemented for companies which invest in training and education of their employees.
It could appeal to both political parties because it would be a reward to those individuals who have made an investment in future earnings potential, not just a hand-out based on need. It would provide an incentive for individuals to continue learning, retraining, and growing throughout their lives.
It could help strengthen our society's appreciation that life-long learning is the only answer to the challenges of structural unemployment.
Our tax policy could reflect and support our GOALS as a nation - recognizing the investments families and individuals make in the future and it could send a clear message of support and encouragement to every family that investing in education is an investment in our nation's future. By allowing all education expenses to be eligible for the deduction, not just those in the field in which one is employed, or not just those leading towards a degree, we could promote a goal of cross-training, exploring creative fields which may lead to more creative innovation in one's field or leading to new opportunities for diversifying one's employability.
Perhaps now someone will give this idea a chance. If America had adopted this type of tax policy 15 years ago...imagine where we might be today.
November 5th 2008, 3:37 pm
1. I have run the numbers and they show that nothing we can do is significant if we do not get rid of coal. The world uses 6 billion tons per year which generates over 20 billion tons of CO2 per year. This quantity is nearly a physical impossiblity to capture, ship and bury. The energy required to sequester it would probably exceed the energy generated.
2. Even if corn in the US is energy neutral, the energy input is mostly from natural gas. This is better than foreign oil. If we made the corn ethanol like Brazil makes sugar cane ethanol, by burning the stocks and cobs for heat, it would be very energy positive.
3. As bad as burning forests to plant crops might seem, if the land is used to make sugar cane ethanol, you would end up with a net CO2 savings after a few years. The trees would have died on their own and you have displaced a lot of gasoline. Also, if the tree burners would make charcoal out of the trees and bury it, you would have improved the atmosphere.
November 5th 2008, 11:31 am
Last Call:
Get on Board the Train of Hope, Vote for Barack Obama!
By Emalafe Zeleke
For people of African decent, recent immigrants as well as those who have lived in the United States for decades, the election presents a unique opportunity to play a role in a truly rare moment in history. Tomorrow we can join the chorus for change and restore a sense of hope for a better world, for a policy of cooperation, mutual respect, diplomacy, civility and progress. Central to the sense of optimism that fueled millions of people in the United States as well as the rest of the world is the break from the past Barack Obama’s candidacy represents. Not only does Senator Obama offers a new vision in domestic and foreign policies, but his election would also usher in a presidency unlike any other in the history of the United States.
Having said all that one can ask what does Senator Obama’s candidacy mean for Ethiopian Americans? Why vote for Barack? What do an Obama victory and the subsequent policies of indeed entail for citizens? I am sure many of us ask such questions. Here are my reasons for writing this piece at 11:55 before the final verdict is made by the electorate after the most decisive voting hours of Nov 24, 2008: (1) the world is getting increasingly intertwined and requires a transformative leader such as Senator Obama to tackle regional and global issues, (2) A Barak Obama Presidency would promote global cooperation and set progressive global priorities, (3) A Barak Obama Presidency would promote democracy and the protection of human rights in Africa.
In his most recent interview with a national media where he endorsed Barack Obama, General Colin Powel, the former US Secretary of State, aptly used the phrase “a transformative figure” when describing Senator Barack Obama. In this age of globalization, when the “flat world” is becoming even more flatter, the world ever getting crowded, and the global climate getting warmer, by the day, it is not only America that needs a transformative leader, but also the world. Geopolitical and geo strategy scholars and pundits alike--starting with Paul Kennedy’s book on The Rise and Decline of Great Powers -- have been talking about the relative decline of the USA as the most powerful country in the world. A decline that has a simultaneous geopolitical dynamic with the emergence of new regional powers vying to be global powers, thus the increasing trends of the geo political chess board towards a polycentric world of multiple power centers. Among the contending countries is included formerly regional powers such as China, who is flexing its economic muscle along with an authoritarian political system that still remain among the few relics of a bygone era still hanging stubbornly.
Although faced with many troubles on several fronts, including the ongoing financial crisis and economic recession that tops it all, the United States of America remains the most powerful country, with the vastest natural resources, with the most vibrant, and innovative entrepreneurial spirit of its citizenry. And it remains to be the most technologically advanced country among the nations of the world. Despite the often times ugly sides of US foreign policy that deserves much by way of negative reaction and even condemnation, the best of America’s promise to the world, yet remain its ideals of liberty, democracy, and justice. Ideals that move, shake, and inspire much of humanity in sharp contradistinction to models offered by the Chinese and other authoritarian and atavistic political systems where human beings lack their inalienable rights to enjoy liberty, that unique value towards which the human spirit, universally, aspires and struggles towards attainment and consummation. These are the American virtues and ideals that need fulfillment not only for Americans, but for all of humanity.
As the old saying has it when America sneezes , it brings tears to the rest of the world is as true and even more relevant today in this increasingly Globalized and interconnected world, as it was decades ago. Asserting that America is in an economic recession would be commenting on the obviously common knowledge. The world is also suffering from yet a some what forgotten recession. What Larry Diamond, a Senior Fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover institute, argues as the specter of “Democratic recession” that has been plaguing countries around the world. The world needs a rescue package not only for the economic recession but also for the regression of democracy and its role back to many strands of Authoritarian regimes around the Globe, as Mr. Diamond argued in the April/March issue of Foreign Affairs.
Barack Obama has made it clear that good governance, democracy, and human rights will be the cornerstones of his foreign policy. During successive US administrations, especially with the Bush administration, the USA has forfeited that unique position global leadership it often enjoyed --not due to its position as global power-- due to the loftiest of human ideals America cherishes –the ideals of liberty and democracy all human beings aspire to attain. Few years ago, the current President George W. Bush pledged and made it known that America would be on the side of people under the yoke of tyranny and fighting for freedom while in practice it pursued an expedient foreign policy fraught with double standards and hypocrisy of cuddling and rewarding dictatorial regimes that are deemed friendly and under the single minded fixation and criteria of them being “allies of the war on terror”. The list of these friendly dictatorial regimes includes gross human rights violators and those who muzzle the free press like Meles Zenwai of Ethiopia, Musharaf of Pakistan and others.
By contrast, from the outset, in speeches, debates, and interviews on foreign policy matters, Senator Barack Obama has indicated that he will part with the longstanding policy of successive US administrations –both Republicans and democrats--. i.e. that of patting the so-called friendly dictators on their shoulders and looking the other way when these brutal regimes, often times also corrupt, commit massive violation of human rights against their citizens. This glimpse of a new trend in Barack Obama’s foreign policy-- if pursued with vigor and without succumbing to the narrow-minded and expedient single agenda of “fighting the war on terror” and other justifications in the name of national interest --will surely help in reviving the depressed conditions of democracy and lack of basic liberties around the world. Such a policy would help in bringing back those nations suffering from lack of democracy, human rights and good governance towards the right track. Such a reconfiguration in US foreign policy would help those in “democratic recession” even a depression, counties like Ethiopia back on track towards genuine democracy and constitutional liberalism, i.e., where substantive norms and rules of democracy--as opposed to superficial forms such as holding periodic elections-- are the norms, where the rule of law is not replaced overnight by the rule, whim and wish of those holding the levers on state power, where elections are not held under an atmosphere that lack the elementary rules of the game, under conditions that lack the basic criteria for free and fair elections, where there is an absence of a meaningful and truly independent and free press, and where the respect and guarantee for the basic civil and political liberties of each and every citizen and political opposition alike are utterly absent.
Few skeptics have lately expressed a concern with regard to aspects of Obama’s foreign policy when it comes to dealing with such undemocratic regimes. To support their claim they point our to some bad apples that have somehow made it into his foreign policy team, individuals with track record of abetting and aiding dictatorial regimes and patting them on their shoulders. As seen, for instance, during the May 2005 national election in Ethiopia, where the regime security forces who were under the direct command of the prime minister gunned down more than 190 unarmed protesters in its bid to steal the election after committing massive fraud, and at the end getting away with it. In part, with the help and outright justification of those brutal actions by these bad apples. Although such a concern as expressed by these commentators is warranted, one should also be cognizant of the presence of decent and principled foreign policy experts and professionals in that team, who seem to be as committed to democracy, human rights, and good governance in the developing world as Obama has said to uphold. Foreign policy experts, advisors, and professionals who are as eager to restore the broken image USA has suffered around the world as a result of the debacle of the policies of the Bush administration, This should give us comfort that the bad apples would not hold the commanding heights in his foreign policy team to pursue their sinister and un-American agenda of dilly dallying and abetting dictatorial regimes.
There is another indicator as to the persona of Barack Obama. We find the clue as to why one should be optimistic about US foreign policy under an Obama presidency from yet another source. In the The Audacity of Hope, Barack Obama wrote: “…All of which raises the question: what are the core values that we, as Americans, hold in common? One core value, individual freedom, is so deeply ingrained in us that we tend to take it for granted. I remember the first time I took Michelle to Kenya, shortly before we were married. As an African-American, she was bursting with excitement about the idea of visiting the continent of her ancestors, and we had a wonderful time, visiting my grandmother upcountry, wandering through the streets of Nairobi, camping in the Serengeti, fishing off the island of Lamu. But during our travels Michelle also heard – as I had heard during my first trip to Africa – the terrible sense on the part of most Kenyans that their fates were not their own. My cousins told her how difficult it was to find a job or start their own businesses without paying bribes. Activists told us about being jailed for expressing their opposition to government policies. ….” The above quoted paragraph from his autobiography tells much by way of Obama’s’ sympathy and empathy with people who find themselves in miserable conditions and lack the basic and deeply cherished American values—Liberty and the pursuit of happiness. The quoted paragraphs also tell say much about his deeper understanding of the very sad conditions found among many countries and the peoples living in these countries, it says much about the character of Obama, his core values. The deeply held principles of a very decent man.
Let us not forget the very man who was an outstanding law school student at Harvard and President of Harvard Law Review, opted to accept much lower pay as community organizer, turning down six digit salary job offers from the corporate world. This too is indicative of Obama’s core values and character, that of siding with the average person, and his commitment to change the lot of the under dogs of society, as opposed to aligning with the politically powerful and the wealthy. Farid Zakaria, the former editor of Foreign Affairs, and now with Newsweek magazine, in his most recent article, observes that “ …Bill Clinton and Hilary Clinton were always careful not to stay too far from the country’s comfort zone. Obama is pushing to change the parameter of that zone. That's leadership.” It is this tendency to push to change the parameters of the zone, about which Mr. Zakaria talks about that should make us comfortable about the kind of foreign policy that Senator Obama will pursue. It is the kind of leadership qualities Obama embodies that give hope and optimism about his “Transformative” potential not only to reconfigure the political edifice and policies here in the USA, but also on the Global scale.
Viewed from the broad challenges facing humanity, our planet is in great peril, and continues heading towards a catastrophe of epochal proportion. Global warming , climate change, and an ever depleting of natural resources – the depletion of the world’s rangelands, forests, fishers, biodiversity etc—in unprecedented scale and beyond their natural capacity to regenerate themselves as a result of voracious quest of nations of the world for economic progress in an unsustainable and ecologically disastrous path. We have come to a point of no return. Thus, greatly threatening the very survival of human civilization and the continuity of future generations. In much of the developing world such as Ethiopia and much of the countries of Africa, we still face monumental challenges of hunger, abject poverty, the specter of AIDs, and corrupt and tyrannical regimes that exacerbate and compound the misery of hundreds of millions who under abject poverty and ever pushed on the farthest edges of society to engage in actions that degrade the environment on massive scale for sheer survival. These challenges desperately need Leaders with fresh ideas, bold visions, principles and the will for decisive action.
The leading scientists of many countries including the USA, the most prominent climatologists around the Globe, and Inter governmental agencies studying climate change and many other internationally recognized authoritative bodies and personalities such as Jeff Sachs of The Earth Institute at Colombia University and Lester Brown of the Earth Policy Institute have come to a similar consensus with regard to this central problem of our era. They have ringed the alarm bell about the state of our planet. The single and most pervasive conclusion that has emerged from these massive findings from varied sources is that the human impact on the natural environment has reached a complexity and magnitude unprecedented in history, which may well endanger the survival of human civilizations and human life on this planet.
Barack Obama’s’ energy policy and his avowedly strong commitment to gear the backbone of the most powerful industrial civilization, the American energy system towards alternative, clean and green energy sources promises to put a brake to the current trend towards what has been termed as “ecocide" of Global proportion, stemming from dependency, in large part, on the dirty fuels such as oil and coal. With a majority democratic congress, many hope that America would be able to tackle more seriously and even lead international conventions and the agenda for action to meet the challenges of Global climate change and the Global environmental crises. Obama’s energy policy would create millions of green jobs, minimize USA’s dependence on Middle Eastern oil, and in the process would bring the US towards an energy system that depends on clean and environmentally non-polluting economy, a model economy of the 21st century.
This in turn would surely help in diffusing innovation in solar, wind and other renewable technologies to the rest of the world. Thus , eventually leading towards the phasing out of the reliance on “Petro dictators”, as argued with massive data and persuasive new vision by Thomas Freidman , the New York Times Foreign Affairs correspondent and bestselling author of several books including his most recent: Hot, Flat , Crowded: Why We need a Green Revolution and How it can Renew America . Mr. Freidman proposes a similar action when he asks Americans “what kind of America would you like to see—an America where there is not big national goal, or a green America, where inventing sources so abundant, clean, reliable, and cheap electrons, which could enable the whole planet to grow in a way that does not destroy its remaining natural habitat, becomes the goal of this generation…” Barak Obama’s energy policy promises to usher a new era for America, America that is not fettered by “petro dictators” due to addictions to oil.
In so far as America remains a leader of the world, if America rises to be the best of her potential, she can change the course of history, not only for America’s sake, but also for the sake of the rest of the world, the survival of humanity at large. There are many reasons that indicate that Barack Obama is such a leader, bringing USA to rise to the best of herself. Indeed to these monumental and epochal challenges with the support of the tens of millions of his supporters, including tens of millions of white Americans who have transcended racial divide and outdated thinking of a bygone era. In deed seeing in him and as Martin Luther King Jr. dreamed some forty years ago--, judging him by the content of his character , not based on the color of his skin. A man has come on the world stage; a unique leader has emerged to lead the most powerful country on the planet.
If elected as a President, not only America but the world would need the qualities and visions of Barack Obama. He may not be the alpha and omega, but he certainly can put America on the right track and with America’s leading by example, the rest of the world would follow. Let us rise up to the occasion. Let us seize the moment. Let us vote for hope, vote for change; vote a better and stronger America. Vote for a cleaner and greener America, and consequently a cleaner and greener world. Let us vote not only for ourselves but also for the continuity and survival of humanity on planet earth. Vote for Democratic Presidential candidate Barack Obama.
November 4th 2008, 12:58 pm
Mr. Friedman,
Thank you for writing this book. I do however have one BIG problem with promoting Genetically Engineered Food as you seem to support on page 196 in your discussion on Senhor Verde's farm... Optimially our 'fantasy' farm would be purely organic that uses "God Made' crops. As you mentioned earlier in your book... we are ALL connected- introducing GMO crops WILL effect all that come in contact with them. Please rethink this stance.
Sincerly,
Jean Lee
November 4th 2008, 8:58 am
We have laws on the books at the federal and state levels that make it difficult or even impossible for individuals to sell excess electrons generated by their home or farm renewable energy systems back to the utilities. In other words, they are not permitted to be a “net generator.” All they can do is make their meter run backward. They are compensated at the retail rate for what they produce up to the amount they take from the grid. Once they reach the net zero point, excess power goes into the grid for free.
We need to change the laws to allow these farmers, ranchers, and homeowners to sell excess power at the utilities avoided cost. This will provide a greater incentive for homeowners to install solar, and farmers and ranchers to produce electricity from their waste as well as install solar. It would also allow utilities here in California to avoid buying coal-fired power from out of state, and may begin to displace oil-fired electricity.
Until we get that legislation, people who produce more renewable electricity than they use should find ways to displace other forms of energy around the house or farm. Maybe using your excess electricity to preheat water going into a gas water heater would work. You would save on the gas bill and lower the amount of CO2 from that source.
The bottom line once again is that we need to make it easier to do the right thing than it is to do the harmful thing.
November 3rd 2008, 3:31 pm
The answers are going to be big, complicated and messy. Think of a crowded Middle Eastern bazaar or African market. There will be a lot of ideas, a lot of arguing and a lot of competition – not all of it fair. The tough part will be to make sure everyone has a chance to get their idea out, even the kooks. I like the idea of investing a lot of money in a few big projects. But then turning around and investing a lesser amount in many smaller projects.
For example, think ITER, http://www.iter.org/ and then think Polywell http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polywell/
I just started Hot, Flat and Crowded. So far it is scaring the hell out of me. Thanks Tom, as if my IRA hasn’t been scary enough. ;-)
November 2nd 2008, 10:57 pm
Thank you, Tom, for this amazingly eye-opening book.
I'm wondering why you didn't talk about the fact that electric plug-in vehicles were already produced and leased in CA and then were taken off the market, most likely due to oil company pressure. The documentary "Who Killed The Electric Car" was mind-reeling!! The technology is already here, but it was destroyed. Please....... include this in your final chapter. We need those electric cars!!!
Thank you,
Amy Martin
November 2nd 2008, 9:17 pm
Mike's suggestion of algae oil is an excellent one that deserves more than two words.
Some species of microalgae (the kind you seen in pond scum) produce up to 60% of their weight in oil. It's been estimated that it can produce as much as 37,000 kg of oil per acre per year. At that rate, it could satisfy our pre-$4.50/gal ground transportation demand (which has now decreased) on 10-12 million acres. It becomes even more feasible as we get more efficient and conserve.
The Department of Energy and University of California, Berkeley had an algea biodiesel experiment going at an abandoned base in Roswell, New Mexico. It lost funding in the mid-90's (I wonder who did that?) just as it was showing promise.
Now there's a company in Vicksburg, Arizona called XL Renewables, I believe, operating a 7,500 cow dairy farm. As a by-product, they produce biodiesel from algae grown on the manure from the dairy. The algae that's left over after the oil is squeezed out can be used to produce cellulosic ethanol, fertilizer, or even livestock feed. Another example of economies of scope.
We have dairy farms, hog farms, and feed lots all over the country that have waste problems. Lagoons are leaking into fresh water supplies as we try to figure out how to get rid of the waste. We're also trying to figure out where to get more domestic renewable energy. Nobody seems to be connecting the dots.
The possibilities are even greater in developing countries, most of which are in tropical or temperate regions which make the growth of large amounts of algae possible. Most of these countries are fouling their rivers with the sewage from their cities. Algae could be used as a primary sewage treatment system that also produces clean fuel in areas where both are desperatly needed.
Algae diesel facilities can also be used as a means of slowing down the rate at which stationary sources put CO2 into the atmosphere. We already have the means of removing it from smokestacks. We're just trying to figure out where to put it. Algae loves CO2 (as do all plants). The facilities that have grown algae have bubbled captured CO2 up through the ponds where the algae absorb it. This isn't the perfect solution, but it gets more energy out of the CO2 before it's released into the atmosphere by a mobile source without the ability to capture it.
I think the important thing for all of these techonologies is to find a way to deploy them. Bessemer didn't invent steel, he improved its production by implementing ideas he had after observing how it was already produced. The same can be said of Watt and the steam engine, and Edison and the light bulb. Deploy technology in its crude form and get on the learning curve as soon as possible, giving access to technicians to observe and improve processes.
And we must work on population growth or we will not succeed in the long run.
November 2nd 2008, 2:04 pm
There is no way the financial crisis will be the end of an ecologically sound economic infrastructure. Unless, that is, the same parochial interests that got us into this financial crisis use it as an excuse to engorge themselves, yet again, at the expense of the national interest. That process is underway, but will fail.
Here's why. Green industry will outcompete old-tech that can't or won't capitalize on the energy-efficient and resource-efficient strategies that reduce expenses and capture profits more effectively. No matter how hard the old industrial model clings to its benighted turf, investment in competing companies will only accelerate. Witness the precarious position of hte Big Three automakers: we're witnessing the endgame here, not the beginning of the process.
What's more, demand-management strategies are nothing new. Amory Lovins has been around since the 1970s. We (local level thinkers/doers) had the answers then, we knew it, and were not heard on the federal level or int he media.
If Tom Friedman had listened to the WTO protestors he so witlessly mocked in the 1990s, we would not be in this intertwined economic and ecological crisis today. We--the market--wanted fuel-efficient vehicles, and got giant pickup trucks and SUVs. We asked for a controlled opening to globalozed trade---and got the giant sucking sound of jobs leaving America. We wanted an investment in American infrastructure, instead we got corporations fleeing the USA for cheap labor---and $120 sneakers. The flood of commodity grains such as corn into latin america spelled the end of the ejidos even cheaper overseas labor. Both of which accelerated the ecological crisis south and north of the border, and further eviscerated the American economy.
Tom Friedman was wrong---incorrect---to champion 'free trade' by mocking those WTO protesters. (I was not one of them.) It's cost us everything. He should at least have the decency to acknowledge that they had the expertise to instruct him on global economic systems, and on systems thinking, such that the current economic catastrophe could've been avoided. Those folks' expertise was and is unparalleled. It was perfectly possible to open up trade while taking classic American values into account.
Had Friedman listened, his derision and cheerleading---a service appreciated in some circles---would've been dampened or self-excised. An altered national debate might well have helped the nation find a more responsible and less ideological path forward on globalizing trade.
It is a fallacy to assert that America can 'take the lead' or a leadership role on renewable energy, green industry, or sustainabilty. We have much to offer---but we're playing catchup. We're way, way behind, and the goal should be competing effectively and conserving our own resources---not indulging in the pretense of the exceptionalist dogma that American dominance will show anybody else the way. There is exchange and flux, obviously, but we're going abroad to find the answers to apply here at home.
Listening has never been Mr. Friedman's strong suit---as the gentlemen in the IA/MO town hall meeting discovered when he was steamrolled and interrupted by Friedman's cheerleading of a 'preemtive' adn unprovoked invasion of Iraq. That guy was proven right, yet could not be heard---was not afforded a chance to speak in a real dialog, and was not listened to---even though we were about to engage in a pattern of behavior discredited as wholly unjustifiable by german military tactics in wwi and wwii. Without an actual declaration of war, I might add. That refusal to listen to other voices has also never been acknowledged. It'll be a real contribution only when Mr. Friedman can face up and correct a pattern that excludes folks who've got better information, and better judgment. Those folks live in every state in this country---and have been hot on the trail of productive solutions in economic, ecological and international fields/disicplines---for decades.
November 2nd 2008, 10:39 am
Dear Mr. Friedman:
With your new book, you are fulfilling an invaluable service. While I have not yet completed my first reading, I would like to introduce consideration of another risk factor which we face in attempting to solve our energy and environmental problems; one which I have not seen addressed in your book at my current point of reading progress. This risk is nicely synopsized by the following opening paragraph of an editorial appearing in the Oct. 30 issue of Nature magazine:
"A risk worth taking
An experiment by the Gates Foundation is food for thought for other research agencies.
Barry Marshall and Robin Warren's unorthodox idea that the bacterium Helicobacter pylori was involved in gastritis and peptic ulcers met with ingrained resistance from the guardians of stomach-acid wisdom in the 1980s. Against the odds, the two prevailed, revolutionizing care of the disease and receiving a Nobel prize in 2005. But how many other potentially groundbreaking ideas are dragged down a dark alley and quietly strangled by overly conservative peer review of grant proposals?"
Much more than simply unfortunately, this is VERY far from a trivial question. And it raises another question more specifically pointed at the context of our concerns here. What if there are already deeply fundamental breakthroughs in physics - the kind that you discuss in your book - which would be potentially able to offer a decisive solution to our need to generate energy in an environmentally benign manner, but they were being ignored, marginalized or blatantly pilloried not because they actually are "junk" science, but simply because they do not accord with currently prevailing theoretical conventional wisdom? Would we not have every reason to be outraged under the kind of crisis conditions which you appropriately address in your book? Admittedly, a rhetorical question.
What is not at all rhetorical, however, is that there are a surprisingly wide range of examples which might be cited. I offer URLs for just two. If either or both of the gentlemen responsible for the theoretical and technological work revealed at these sites is correct, it may well be that continued academic marginalization would shade from being simply outrageous to being criminal under the conditions of global crisis with which we are confronted. At the very least, a willingness to suspend disbelief would seem to be in order when there are - at least in the case of the former - claims of documented reproduction of key results from multiple INDEPENDENT laboratories.
http://www.blacklightpower.com/
http://www.cheniere.org/
Otherwise, science has effectively replaced empiricism with a theoretical doctrinal theology which must be academically maintained at all cost; new knowledge, truth and reality be damned. Under the conditions of our current crisis, do we have that luxury? Aside from my own personal outrage that such marginalization and resistance should be inflicted on good men doing important work at any time, under our current circumstances I certainly think not. And it may be more than merely relevant to note in passing, that there is a similar breakthrough in economic theory which has perhaps even more profound implications for enhancing the speed and effectiveness with which such breakthroughs might be introduced and disseminated through the market, and which has been and continues to be subject to a very similar kind of academic and political marginalization.
MARCUS
November 2nd 2008, 12:42 am
Mr. Friedman,
I just finished reading Hot, Flat, and Crowded. Great Book. I wish I were getting a kickback for every time I recommend it.
Essentially, you wrote about the intersections of each of those elements, correctly stating that we need to slow down and eventually reverse Hot and steer Flat in the right direction. But you didn't really address Crowded - at least you didn't explore possibilities of reducing it.
Of course, Flat will probably help Crowded to some extent, since birth rates will probably tend to fall as standards of living rise. But we can help it along by raising the level of education in the world as we improve our own. We know that as women are better educated, birth rates come down to more manageable levels. It wouldn't hurt us any to have better primary and secondary education, either.
Scale isn't the only consideration. We should think about economies of scope, as well. An inventor here in California has improved the combustion of hygrogen and oxygen to produce steam to drive a turbine. This would make a great energy storage device, once we consider that it would also produce pure water, which is in high demand in the high-tech manufacturing sector.
We need to make it easier to grow the right way, and harder to grow the wrong way. We can start by streamlining the environmental qualification process. You wrote about this in your book. The federal and state governments should write their environmental laws so that if certain parameters are met for certain types of projects (no jobs/housing imbalance, renewable energy-powered transportation projects, infill rather than green field development, adequate R-value insulation for buildings, etc.), a Negative Declaration/Finding of No Significant Impact (NegDec/FONSI here in California) would automatically follow. This would allow communities to follow suit with their zoning ordinances. We should also create an enforcement system that provides for a single agency enforcing the most stringent of federal, state, and local laws in their jurisdictions.
We need to think about priorities. We're voting on a high-speed rail bond in California next Tuesday. Great idea, but it would have been better to build it in a way that provided a fast alternative to existing long commutes. Unfortunately, the state law that created it stipulated that the first trains must run between L.A. and San Francisco. That can't happen until 2035, and the system will soak up so much capital that regional rail systems that would have taken far more cars off the roads sooner probably won't be built.
I guess Amory Lovins' advice is best: Pay attention. Think about what you (we) are doing. This past 9/11, while most people were contemplating threats and grievances, I was thinking about the opportunities we have before us. It's frustrating that we can't get together as a people long enough to sieze them. We're Americans.
We can fix this.
October 31st 2008, 8:12 pm
Dear Mr. Freedman:
Greetings to you sir. Please allow me to express my profound appreciation to you for writing your latest work: Hot, Flat, and Crowded. I can not express in words how much I have benefited from reading and digesting the implications of the ideas in your book in addition to your earlier works-- The Lexus and the Olive Tree, The World Is Flat. Indeed your best selling works have helped me in expanding my horizon and understanding the forces shaping our modern world.
But your latest came as a big boost in piercing through the fog hovering on millions in terms of understanding the extent of the current global environmental crises facing humanity with a language and style that is so attractive and straightforward. I am sure, your ideas would in help people to reexamine and rethink their hitherto held notions about society, nature, environment, energy, and the place of humanity, posterity on our planet earth in general. Thus helping to usher a new paradigm and systemic transformation of society where humanity and nature can live in somewhat harmony at long last.
I am from Ethiopia and live in the USA. On top of the utter lack of democracy and basic human rights in my country, as you very well know my coubtry Ethiopia faces daunting poverty, hunger, ever encroaching desertifcaion, massive deforestation, and overall ecological challenges now and in the future. Your ideas and similar ideas like yours would surely shape rethinking about what it means to be modernized, developed, about the vital importance of protecting the environment, the role of renewable energy for a sustainable development that is in harmony with the ecosphere and laws of nature. Your work and fresh ideas is so relevant not only for the USA but also for poor counties like Ethiopia.
I thank you much again.
Respectfully,
Neamin Zeleke
Neaminz@aol.com
October 31st 2008, 1:06 pm
A Sustainable Lifestyle
We need a new ethic, a new way to live. In 1985 my wife, Judy, and I built a solar house in the foothills above Denver. It was a contemporary house in an expensive neighborhood, but it was a passive solar home with an active solar and wood stove backup heat source; no fossil fuels. Features included a water wall in the living room built of 50 gallon oil drums filled with water, a thermosyphon solar system serving a hot tub, and a 500 gallon solar storage tank to carry us through 2 or 3 days of cold cloudy weather. It worked pretty well, but given our 7,000 feet elevation and periods of cold cloudy weather; there were mornings we woke up to a 50°F house. Yes it was cold, but we got used to it. Put on a pair of fleece sweat pants, a sweater, and warm slippers; we were comfortable, maybe build a fire in the wood stove and snuggle next to it. The kid’s never complained, they got used to it before they could walk. On sunny days the hot tub got hot and it was a treat; on cloudy days it didn’t and we couldn’t get in it; such is life, sometimes the sun shines and sometimes it doesn’t.
Now we live in Belmar, a sustainable walkable community near Denver. We can walk to about 20 restaurants, 2 supermarkets, our bank, our Kaiser clinic, Home Depot, the library, Staples, a movie theater, and all kinds of various stores. We live in a condo on top of a Gap store and we have a very efficient water source heat pump for heating and cooling. But we keep the heat set at 50°F and the cooling at 85°F and it’s almost November and we still have the windows open in the bedroom. Sometimes when we get up it’s near 50°F in the bedroom and we put on a pair of fleece pants, a sweater, and warm slippers; we were comfortable. Of course mornings are cold, it’s Colorado, but it feels good to be alive. Our condo has a roof terrace facing south; the balcony above provides summer shade and winter solar heat gain through our windows. We still have a hot tub, but it doesn’t have a heater; super insulation and heat reclaim from the pump and motor keeps it hot.
Walking to everything takes a little more time, but it helps keep us healthy. And we know which phase the moon is in. Sometimes is cold and you dress warmer and when it’s hot you put on shorts. We use little energy, and that feels like a good thing, but more than that we experience the environment and the season we live in. A sustainable lifestyle.
October 30th 2008, 11:48 pm
we always feel American people like to think about any problem like it is their own problem, not a problem for the whole people live in this planet. America should guide the world to solve the universal problem (lack of energy). even the people in the Arab world need a solution for this problem for their future (if the world going to have future). we cant count the ideas which made by the scientists & engineers as suitable & economical. it is suitable for poor people. we know we can get over this by investing more money in researches & be patient. during Manhattan project, scientists knew they should make the bomb before Hitler. now we r in situation we hear the bomb hit outside the labratory & we should continue work.
October 30th 2008, 6:12 pm
Making clean, renewable energy domestically is simple. Replacing 13 million barrels-a-day of petro' immediately and continuously will be tough, tough. Because demand drives our economy, both public and private institutions must implement myriad mandates to stimulate sustainable markets for everything from Renewables Fuels to renewable lube oils. If Royal Dutch Shell is serious about resource conservation (they say they are), why don't they require re-refining of the waste oil collected at Jiffy Lubes (a Shell subsidiary) across the country. Their franchisees must follow a host of corporate guidelines set by Shell. Offering Re-refined lube oil would result in savings of billions of gallons each year. Used oil doesn't wear out, it just gets dirty. Like the mice' idea of hanging a bell on the cat's neck; great concept, who's gonna implement it?
October 30th 2008, 12:55 pm
I found myself over and over again removing the words "green", "energy", and "fossil fuel", among others and replacing them with "health care". While you talk about health care in relation to investments, it is about as systematically fouled up as is our energy "policy". Time and again we hear that our health care system is not performing. That gives it more credit than it deserves; it is not nearly a system.
Like the problems we see in energy policy, brought on by what I think is 1) cowardly kowtowing to special interests and 2) the lack of the intellectual capacity to see or frame the entire systems problem we have in front of us, we have poor health quality health care as well.
I know that there are other things like this that would benefit from a broader systems view of things. And, there are many things we need to work on concurrently to insure that our society does not fail.
A very special book. Thanks for writing it.
October 29th 2008, 5:45 pm
Ironically the melting financial markets are causing more consternation than the melting ice caps. But unlike Wall Street, Mother Nature can’t be bailed out. The financial panic we