Where's the Price Signal?

It is now more clear than ever that Barack Obama is not going to be able to impose a gasoline tax, set a carbon tax, or establish a cap-and-trade plan for carbon emissions in his first year in the White House. How can we have a green revolution without a price signal—a sign to investors that the market for clean energy solutions is huge and a sure thing? I am interested in any ideas you have—and I am sure Obama will be too!

Ideas:

Dear Mr. Friedman,
God bless you for educating me.
Sometimes i feel it's so much more painful to know we are the cause of so many disturbing things happening on this planet. Now, we have to do something about it.
May we all have the strength to make a change, and hope it works.
Leena kukreja

Leena Kukreja
December 10th 2008, 12:47 pm

ENERGY EFFICIENCY EDUCATION

It's clear to even the simpletons like myself that massive energy efficiency practices are of the first order to begin the larger efforts of reducing our fossil fuel use, developing energy independence and reducing our carbon footprint.

Unfortunately, this is not happening fast enough. Everyone wants to be the finder or at least associated with "The Big Answer" to these energy problems. All good and fine but in the meantime, we - the US and the world - need to become energy leaner, as has been mentioned.

Just had a home energy audit done, free, from our local electricity provider. It was not completely comprehensive but it was sufficient enough to produce many good suggestions and an estimate for energy efficient work and installs to reduce our home's energy use. That work/install estimate was a 75% discount over a "conventional estimate" (blown-in insulation, baffles, insulated attic door, etc.) SEVENTY FIVE PERCENT! And their computer program spit out that my payback time at that price to be under 3 years. That's a pretty good investment.

Now the problems, which are at least two-fold: I found out about this program purely by luck; very few know this program exists. The terrible communication regarding this program must mean that there's limited sincerity for it to be utilized (a quasi-state & utility entity administers) because I wouldn't consider myself a head in the sand person. It seems to me that we - our politicians, us, all - are not nearly serious enough about becoming energy lean. There's still way too much talk but too little communication and/or action.

Secondly, the way I found out about this program was through an Internet search for "energy efficiency education" and "home energy audit training". I can't answer for other areas of the country but here in Massachusetts, I have found it near impossible to find any information and opportunities to become trained and certified as such. For someone like myself who is hungry, prepared and available for a career change that would benefit me, my family, my community, my country, well...it doesn't appear to be an easy find. We need to encourage our state educational institutions, community colleges, tech schools - all of them - to offer educational training for building and retrofitting our homes, offices and other structures to be more energy efficient. I want to be a home energy auditor and I'm finding dead ends to getting there. Not good.

If we don't learn and experience the many benefits of energy efficiency, we won't care. And like anything else, if we want to become comfortable with the direction of energy efficiency in all its forms, we will need to incorporate it to K-12 education.

I suspect I speak for many when I say keep up the great research and worldly experience you bring to your books and articles, educating us regarding the the problems and possibilities. Promote education on a local level because programs generated from the feds are too distanced from most of us, as I think you've experienced visiting peoples from around the world and their relationship with their federal governments.

In the same vein, a gas tax might be best served set at state levels. There we will need to keep the revenue focused on energy efficiency and renewable energy. State level programs will bring energy issues and solutions closer to home. The feds may be best served encouraging such through policy and financial incentives to the states.

Danny

Danny Hooper
December 10th 2008, 12:12 pm

Mr. Friedman,

I have admired your written work for years and have recently read Hot, Flat and Crowded (which I believe should be put on all required high school reading lists!).

In response to your question, I am not a scholar and I do not work in a green field but I'd still like to offer two simple suggestions:

I was particularly impressed by a regulation you mentioned as having been imposed by the Chinese government. So what if, for example, all U.S. businesses/shopping centers were required to lower their electricity intake by X% each year for X years? (We could start with turning down the AC in summer by two degrees: I'd be happy to shop without a sweater anyway:-)). While it would certainly have a lesser impact than carbon control, it would still be a start. And I believe that in the short-term it would be easier to pass "smaller" legislations such as this one.

Another way to get the government's/big companies' attention would be to organize an internet petition, gathering as many signatures as possible, stating that "We the People" would like to see this change. As you yourself wrote, when the NY companies were contacted about the energy they were wasting on their "idling Town Cars", they responded. Perhaps our new government will as well.

I'd be happy to help,
Sarah

Sarah
December 10th 2008, 6:19 am

Hello Tom,

Thank you for your amazing work. I’ve worked in wind energy as a project engineer for the last seven years and am a firm believer that millions of American families can make a decent living from CleanTech if our leadership unites to lay down sensible policy for a clean energy future.

Policy ideas:
1) Extend the Production Tax Credit for wind energy a minimum of 8 years. The Investment Tax Credit for solar was recently passed for 8 years and the same leadership needs to be applied to wind. The 20/30 plan is achievable if the tax credits are there up front to provide market stability. Read more at www.awea.org. Oil, gas, coal and nuclear have been subsidized for decades as the technologies matured. Wind and Solar are proven and deserve the same government support to mature the technologies, build the factories and train the workers needed to make wind energy reach 20% of our nation’s generation capacity by 2030.
2) Conservation. It kills me that we waste so much energy in our homes and businesses. From a cost and CO2 management perspective, burning fuel that is not properly utilized is asinine. Another thing that most people are ignorant of is that working on power plants is dangerous. Respect the workers who provide you the power and don’t waste it!
a. Renew the federal tax credits for energy efficiency upgrades that expired in 2007. Replacing old, leaky windows with tight, low-E glass windows is not cheap. We recently dropped $20k on new windows and doors and that was just for the top floor! Energy efficiency is imperative to our national security….reward those that take the initiative to improving their efficiency.
b. Encourage people to start monitoring their monthly electricity and gas usage by offering a tax credit to families that can proove a sustained monthly energy usage reduction of 8% for every month of the current tax year compared to the previous. (Degree days would have to be accounted for in gas usage.)
c. Start a Conservation Crusade. Set thousands of high school and college kids loose during the summers going door to door educating people on global warming and energy efficiency. Arm them with the facts and literature to engage and convince a speculative public. Have the crusaders install 5 CFL light bulbs in each house. Have them distribute coupons for energy audits
d. Employ an army of workers who perform energy audits on homes, weatherizing and changing light bulbs as they go. While the auditors are at the house, they can evaluate the homes solar thermal and PV potential as well as asses the insulation levels and check for leaks. All the information gathered needs to be entered into a standardized database. Give the option to homeowners to make their data open to businesses that would like to contact them about energy efficiency improvements.
3) Implement a carbon tax now. Start at a reasonable low level and outline how it will increase annually until it is effective to bring about the change in CO2 levels required. The introduction rate will send the signal that the tax is for real but be low enough not cripple industry and allow companies time to adjust. The carbon tax needs be shared between producers and consumers.
4) Create product labeling that indicates carbon footprint for consumer goods that takes into account the embodied energy of manufacture, packaging and transport. The label will allow consumers to make a sound choices based on environmental factors in addition to price and quality.

Thank you again.
Regards,
Mike Hornemann
Bozeman MT

Mike Hornemann
December 10th 2008, 1:07 am

Mr. Friedman and commenters,

I found Hot, Flat, and Crowded quite enlightening, and I also enjoyed reading the comments on this page. Here's a website y'all should really check out:
www.campaignforgreen.com, as well as
my blog http://campaignforgreen.blogspot.com.
Thanks for including a comments page on your site!
Sincerely,

L.L. Cox, Ph.D.

L. L. Cox
December 9th 2008, 11:27 pm

I really think that the main problem we're facing with the energy crisis (global warming, diminishing reserves of oil, etc.) is that most people don't know or care how serious it is. We need to shock them into understanding! This suggestion may be too long-range and too indirect to count for much, but one idea would be for Obama to ask someone like Steven Spielberg to make a film which would VERY graphically demonstrate what our world will be like if we continue to do nothing -- sort of an apocalyptic view (like "Deep Impact"). (Possibly the government should provide funding to make the film. It seems like we're funding everything else!) Show this film, possibly for free, in theaters. Show it to all school children. (High school students should also be required to watch "No End in Sight", "Crude Awakening" and similar films.) Only when people are really afraid will they be willing to make the sacrifices which WILL be required of all of us.

Barbara
December 9th 2008, 7:00 pm

Janet
Your ideas are noble, but the energy plan that will be successful will be the one that is most cost effective. We need to consider a wide range of energy alternatives. You say all new cars should have conversion kits. Conversion to what? Conversion to natural gas would allow us to use a different non-imported fossil fuel, but it's still a fossil fuel. Conversion of an existing car to hybrid is extremely expensive; I can't imagine what a cost effective conversion kit would look like.

To me it's all about energy efficiency first. Spend $7 for a 25 watt compact fluorescent lamp (CFL) to replace a 100 watt incandescent lamp and you save 75 watts. Or you can spend $600 for a solar PV panel ($8/peak watt) and save the same amount. The key is energy efficiency first and then take care of the rest with renewables.

For automobiles (personal transportation devices) we need to make them smaller, lighter, more aerodynamic and then put in a smaller battery pack and electric motor. With good design, we can cut the motor and battery size and maybe the cost in half. An then everyone could afford a green car. Hybrid designers are somewhat following this strategy, but not very agressively. We don't need to take 3 tons of steel with us every time we want to go somewhere. Walking, biking, or an electric scooter is better; but we also need something in between the electric scooter and the 3 tons of steel. And it should be powered from a renewable source.

Dennis Jones
December 9th 2008, 11:07 am

Mr. Friedman:

I do not have the knowledge needed to devise a plan to save us from ourselves. I know there are many others who can do that. I do know that something has to be done to pressure the government and Congress to enact laws executing whatever plan is best. (I do agree totally with the concept of gasoline taxes on a Federal level and I would want them as high as the public can handle with the tax revenues used to provide funding for clean power research, etc)

I read a book months ago called "The Shock Doctrine" by Naomi Klein which comes to mind at this time. Basically, her point is that major innovations and changes, some good, some bad, come about primarily during times of crisis or disaster. I think that the current situation qualifies as a crisis and so I propose that an overwhelming push needs to be made NOW to pursue goals which might otherwise take years to achieve.

I am normally not one to send email blasts to my friends about causes, however I plan to set up an email network to spread information about current supportive (and non supportive) legislation and to urge my friends to pass along my emails to all of their friends and family, especially their kids. I am hoping to include email contact information for the appropriate legislators so that each person can easily email the legislators and express his support of the need for immediate change in policy. I haven't completely fleshed out all of the details, but that's the general concept.

I feel that, as you said in your recent book, the pressure for change needs to come from the bottom. I hope that anyone else who thinks that this is a good idea will do the same. The internet is a wonderful way to drive a grassroots effort to achieve change. The politicians need to hear from their constituents that we demand a change in policy and a well conceived plan of action.

Sarah Simon
December 9th 2008, 10:45 am

Give me a break. We are still animals at the top of the food chain trying to survive. The lofty ideals about the world problems and how they can be solved are nice reading and true but I still beleive in Malthus . Rubbing elbows,going to all corners of the world and various appearances sell books .But you are still talking about the few percent of people at the top who recognize these problems while the rest of the world struggles.Good Luck,but revolution and war over the basic needs of food and shelter trump everything else.I am afraid that your worst case scenarios are becoming become reality.All...isms have to expand to continue their existence but we now have too many basic conflicts that devour our attention. By the way, look at other paintings by Bosch and take a much closer look.

Anonymous
December 9th 2008, 9:51 am

I have been trying to send ideas to the Obama transition team, regarding the composite problem of energy, the economy, unemployment and global warming. The issue is can we help all of these items at the same time. I believe we can.
Gasoline consumption/oil usage
1. Legislation to loan the American auto industry money should be dependent on redesign of all new cars as Hybrid vehicles. All new non-commercial trucks should be required to switch to compressed natural gas.
2. The auto makers should be required to create conversion kits for all existing cars.
3. All automobiles older than 10 years would be required to switch to compressed natural gas. The only exception would be antique vehicles, that are used for “showing”, but not for normal road driving.
4. All cars less than 10 years old should be required to have the conversion kit, before a new automobile license plate can be issued.
5. Conversion-kit coupons for a return to the tax payer should be created, to promote the purchase and installation of the conversion kits.
6. Gasoline should be taxed at $1.00 per gallon, and the funds should be transferred to the federal government to help with the initial loan to the auto manufacturers.
7. All gasoline stations would be required to install units to provide for “electric quick starters”, for automobiles with battery issues.
8. All gasoline stations would be required to have compressed natural gas available for refill for all vehicles requiring this energy source.

These measures would stimulate the car manufacturers to rehire employees, stimulating the economy, while reducing dependence on foreign oil and while improving the carbon emission problems.
Fossil fuel usage must be reduced.
1. Legislation needs to be passed requiring all state and local governments to convert from fossil fuel to natural energy sources for at least 50% of energy consumption.
2. All government buildings must be converted to solar, wind-power or other natural heating/cooling and electricity usage.
3. All highway lighting must be converted to solar, wind-powered or other natural source electricity.
4. To fund this initiative, state and local governments would be given money for the purchase of the units, with the stipulation that all solar, wind-power or other natural energy devices using the federal funds be both manufactured at least 50% by Americans with at least 50% American made parts. Further stipulation would be the installation of the devices be done by state and local residents.
5. American manufacturers would be given government-backed, low-interest loans to produce these “natural energy” devices. This would also create jobs.
These measures would stimulate manufacturing of “natural” energy sources, stimulate the American economy, and reduce the carbon emission problem. By stipulating the installation of devices be done locally, the local economy would be stimulated, and local unemployment would decline. Spending would then increase, causing an almost immediate repair to the economic problems.
Legislators and administration experts are dividing the issues, but solving some of the problems can be done by adopting an attitude that a solution can help multiple problems.
To put people back to work, help the economy and the global warming, and bail out the Auto manufacturers, we can work diligently on the environmental problems.

Janet
December 8th 2008, 11:23 pm

Tom Friedman

In reference to your last column and in particular to your suggestion that you want to see plans for the big three to convert to 100% hybrid-electric vehicles within three years as a condition for "bailout". While the goal is noble, you need to be more realistic and actually make the effort to use reasonable facts to present your cases. Toyota introduced hybrid electric vehicles in the early part of this decade, followed by Honda, Ford, GM, Nissan, etc near the middle part of the decade. At present HEV sales from all manufacturers comprise around 2% of sales volumes. This is after roughly 5-10 years of introduction. While it may be reasonable to expect an increase in growth of HEV's, converting to large scale deployment would likely take more than a decade, due to typical automobile product development times and investment costs. Not too mention the fact that the required investment too achieve the required battery production capacity in that timeframe would likely dwarf the size of the bailout. Additionally, at present HEV's are usually not profitable for the manufacturer or for the consumer, making the investment risky. This is due to a relatively high cost for the technology (you basically pay for 2 motive sources instead of 1) combined with relatively low prices for fuel. Taxing fuel would make HEV's become a more viable alternative for both the producers and consumers, as consumers would be more willing to pay for the technology vs conventional vehicles because their investment would possibly pay back over a reasonable ownership period (provided that they do a significant fraction of their driving in the city.)

We also need to consider that there are several other more cost effective (for the consumer) and profitable (for the producer) fuel savings actions that many consumers and producers will take prior to HEV's. For example, more stable and higher fuel prices will stimulate demand for smaller vehicles and the producers will follow. This very action happened this year where, during the high gas prices, consumers shifted to smaller cars and 4 cylinder engines. B and C sized cars get better fuel economy than your Lexus SUV and they are alot cheaper, and the producers need to think about making cars that poorer people can afford, so that we actually have a middle class. Cars and trucks can be restyled to be more aerodynamic for better highway fuel economy at near zero cost and this will be attractive to consumers who are educated about the benefits. More gears can be added to the transmission. The list of high value options is large and the benefits are significant.

So in summary, I'm glad that you are not an investment advisor for the government, because your proposal, requiring any automobile manufacturer to convert their fleet to 100% hybrid production within the next 3 years as you suggest, would quickly drive them out of business in the present environment.

Tom
December 8th 2008, 9:45 pm

Just finished Hot, Flat & Crowded which put many enviromental challenges in easy to understand language for the common person.
You next book (and Obama's mantra) should be:
LEANER, MEANER and GREENER

Make this the Rallying Cry of North America and the Industrialized World.
Eric Nelson, Sussex, New Brunswick, Canada

Eric Nelson
December 8th 2008, 7:32 pm

Your book might just have tremendous influence on our congressional leaders, even in the next six to twelve months. The argument is persuasive and compelling, and thank goodness it has been on the New York Times bestseller list for over 11 weeks.

Perhaps you yourself -- because you are a famous, high profile journalist and writer -- could get on the phone with Nancy Pelosi and urge her to "rally the troops" come next year!

Philip
December 8th 2008, 6:01 pm

I read your column yesterday in the Times and couldn't agree more with what you said --including the pressing need for a gasoline tax. But what really struck me about the column was the premise that Gen X is too complacent about current events. I would never describe myself as complacent, particularly about the environment, and yet it had never occurred to me that the auto bailout was the kind of thing I could have any impact on. As a 33 year old X-er, I don't feel I can afford to wait in taking action around the concerns of my generation, yet I don't want to waste time in empty or counterproductive gestures.

This all serves as a roundabout introduction to the following question. If my generation needs to be more radical and less complacent about what is being done to our future, then what should that look like, and what kinds of actions should we look to take?

http://kitoba.com

kitoba
December 8th 2008, 5:24 pm

We, as a society, are not in a period of innovation nor will we be until AFTER some major disaster strikes. I was curious about innovation and made a brief avocational run at understanding it. What I found was a disaster must strike with a force significant enough to disrupt social structures and psychology BEFORE human society enters a brief period of innovation. Unfortunately for humanity we are in a period of control, which is the most oppressive period for innovation. Take someone like Thomas Edison for example. Edison started the electric power industry, the recording industry, the movie industry as well as inventing too many individual items to mention, though I’ll mention my favorite, the vacuum tube. (The vacuum tube made amplification possible, it lead to the transistor, which lead to the semiconductor and that made the personal computer possible.) Edison was born in the 1840s and it was the civil war that disrupted society enough to give Edison a chance to do what he did. If Edison were alive today, during a period of control, he would be in prison. There are several reasons he would be in prison, but all I need is one simple Edison quote to illustrate my point. “I consider cocaine a work drug and I take extra cocaine when I am working so I don’t have to sleep.” In today’s world it is all about control and even though it costs massive amounts of money, we would much rather keep someone like Edison behind bars than to leave him free to innovate.

Of course we don’t have to put everyone in prison to control his or her innovative spirit. We can easily squash innovation with regulation. Take Frank Lloyd Wright as an example. The Japanese consider Wright to be the greatest architect of all time. The Europeans consider Wright the greatest American architect of all time and even some Americans like him, but Wright would never have had a chance at being an architect if he were alive today because today you need a license to work as an architect and that takes college and college is one thing Wright would never have done. Wright was your typical bull-headed anti-authoritarian rebel who liked to abuse social norms. Luckily for Wright, we didn’t even have building codes when Wright was working, but if we had, none of Wrights single-family homes would have passed code. You see, Wright had a thing for large open unsupported spaces and about one third of Wright’s homes caved in. You may, at this point, be thinking, “see building codes and some education are a good thing.” Of course regulation is good for some things, but not innovation! To realize his vision of wide-open unsupported spaces an innovation called “engineered lumber” was developed. Innovation requires failure, but failure is not an option during a period of control.

I’ll leave you with this Paul Harvey type of story. A very antisocial freshman started college. He did not go to any classes and thus flunked them all. He also got into many fights with his fellow students almost killing one of them. The college disciplinary committee got together and decided to kick this freshman out of school. One math professor named Isaac Borrow said, “No! You are not kicking him out.”

“But he doesn’t even attend classes, so he’ll flunk out anyway,” a committee member spoke up.

“I don’t care.” Said Borrow “I want you to make sure he gets passing grades and I want you to give him my job when he graduates.”

The college freshman in question was Isaac Newton, and the disaster that struck allowing Newton to prosper was the black plague. Where would Newton be if he were alive today – probably prison, don’t you think?

I like that you are positive about our country becoming innovative, positive is a good attitude to have, but I think you are mistaking incremental improvement for true innovation.

Keep writing, your work makes me think,

Mick Bates
Minnesota, USA

mick bates
December 8th 2008, 1:29 pm

Mr. Friedman

This morning I saw a program on C-SPAN 2, a replay from 12/06, in which you participated. It was a discussion called The Future of the Global Economy, Brookings Institute. I checked both C-SPAN and the Brookings Inst. websites to see if they provided an archived video that could be viewed as I wished to share it with members of my web group. Unfortunately it was not available. I ask that you urge them to do so. This discussion should be viewed by as many people as possible.

Agnes
December 8th 2008, 12:32 pm

The experiment in energy speculation of last summer showed that the public gets very uncomfortable when gas hits $3.50 a gallon and verges on panic when gas is up to $4/gallon. Clearly when fuel costs get into this range people start buying energy efficient vehicles, drive at or below the speed limit and generally think more about the costs of the energy they are using. So I think this should be a good indicator of the price point and I suggest a simple plan that could be carried out by the Congress next year. To me, this makes more sense than excess profit taxes on oil companies but may accomplish the same goals.

Simply set the price of gas at $3.50/gallon in manner such that $3.50 - the local market price = gas tax. This would have three benefits. First it suppresses the market gas price by encouraging energy conservation and reduced consumption. Second, the gas taxes collected could be used to pay for at least some of the road & bridge maintenance projects, power line construction and all those public works projects that we hear are soon to be implemented without any funding source in order to decrease unemployment. Finally, this approach will produce gas price stability (until and unless the market gas price is > $3.50) which would be a great benefit for those businesses who have problems budgeting energy costs. One might want to take a similar approach with diesel and jet fuel pricing as well, but I am less confident about the price points for these fuels. One would also have to come up with a rational way to account for state taxes in this scheme.

Geoff Clarke
December 8th 2008, 12:09 am

Mr. Friedman -- Sorry I missed you on CBS this morning -- I was watching Barack Obama on Meet The Press. As I sit here watching 60 Minutes talk about Saudi Arabia's efforts to find ever more oil to keep oil prices low, I really think Obama should set a gas tax for the country. While Tom Brokaw suggested a $4.00 tax, which Obama rejected, $4.00 is clearly very difficult for Americans to handle in this economy. However, I believe Obama SHOULD set a tax in an effort to keep prices at at least $2.50 a gallon. The last thing we want is for Americans to go back to gas guzzling cars, and I believe that at $2.50 ($2.75, possibly even $3.00), Americans can handle the price, and the tax can go to encourage green technologies. If prices continue falling, the green industry will be crushed, which is of course what the Middle East wants.

While I don't think that US industry can be competitive in the World if we force our companies to pay more for energy than our global competitors (global standards need to be established if possible), with respect to the price of gasoline (which mostly only affects us domestically, and plays a relatively small role as a cost of input for our exports), we should impose something of a tax to encourage conservation. And if industry can grow to trust a higher price for gasoline, more innovation will be encouraged to provide alternative fuels, of course in our long term interests. The revenue generated from the tax would be used to encourage investment in alternative energy.

I like Boone Pickens' idea of replacing oil burning cars with natural gas cars, and using wind power to replace natural gas fired power plants. I don't know how the US Auto Industry, in its current state, can realistically fund the move to natural gas.

But in general, we need to impose a modest tax on gasoline and keep it -- despite the economy -- now. Otherwise, innovation will continue to suffer, as new ideas that are competitive at one oil price, will be uncompetitive at a lower price. Gasoline is something we can mostly control without affecting our export comptetitiveness. Since the Saudis and others still have very low marginal costs for much of their production, as demand for oil drops, prices can fall dramatically. We MUST impose taxes to keep prices somewhat higher so that alternative fuels can be developed. Let's NOT risk another 1981. That was the last time the US turned away from developing green technology in the face of a serious recession. It's too easy to do, and it results in crisis planning later. OBAMA STANDS AT A UNIQUE CROSSROADS. HE HAS WIDE SUPPORT RIGHT NOW. USE IT WISELY. PLAN STRATEGICALLY FOR THE FUTURE. Our government, like India's (the world's largest democracy) has a lot of trouble planning strategically. It takes a crisis to get us to do things.

One thing I also like about Boone Pickens' idea is that it is coming from the hard right, an oil man, and an industry that has almost never encouraged green technology. Similarly, it took Nixon to open China, and Clinton to reform welfare. Also, since Pickens is a billionaire willing to spend his money, he has the ability to reach the public by spending on advertising. As a result, given the system we have of strong checks and balances -- which drives us to crisis management only -- Pickens' plan (since it's proposed by the hard right with a big wallet to get out the word) could actually be enacted. Congress could never do it on its own.

I disagree with both you and Obama. I think Obama should impose a tax to reduce volatility in gas prices and discourage an eventual return to gas guzzling (don't squander this opportunity to think strategically). I do agree that a $4.00 tax would be terrible, though, but think that at $2.50 consumers would be able to bear it even in this market. In any event, providing mortgage relief and better unemployment benefits is a better way to go than to rely on low gasoline prices to stimulate spending. When the economy improves again, raise the tax so that gas prices rise to at least $2.75 if not $3.00.

Sincerely,

Rick S.
December 7th 2008, 8:49 pm

There are economic, environmental and strategic issues that all must be addressed by our national energy policy.

There are currently several gas taxes, mostly at the Federal and State levels. The state taxes are not conformable, which historically has caused states with high gas taxes, to 'bleed' revenue to low tax states (e.g. New York v. New Jersey). I have also received receipts from pumps in NY that were charged to NJ addresses by retailers with pumps in both states, so this is clearly an area ripe for tax evasion, 'write-overs' and other fraud, not to mention the waste of people driving for a cheaper fill.

This summer we experienced some very interesting patterns (not in a good way) when oil future prices spiked up due to rolling speculation in the futures markets. There is considerable evidence that much of the energy play came from hedge funds when they were suddenly cut off from shorting. The hedge funds were targeting and taking down investment banks on shorts, along with staid names like GE who saw their equity halved, much the way national currencies had been eviscerated in Asia and South America by similar hedge 'plays' in the last round of international monetary crises. Suddenly the hedges had no play to cover and they ran to energy futures, and, 'voila' the market was suddenly 'shocked' with $140 p/b oil. When that shock rolled back on the pump, at just about the worse timing for the retail year (as back to school sales were hitting) the effect was catastrophic when combined with the shocks to the credit market and a recession, which we were already in, that's now confirmed fact, lurched dangerously to the precipice of Great Depression free-fall. However, Americans did finally begin to drive much more judiciously.

The problem with causing a Depression is that it suddenly lets all the air out of the tires (its a 4X4 flat) and OPEC was suddenly reeling it in as the hedge position fell apart or bailed out. Now gas is headed back to $1.50 in some states, and $2.00 in high tax states in NY.

Reviewing all the above it is clear that it was absolutely economically irresponsible (what's new) for the Bush Administration not to have anticipated runs on the energy market causing such hyper spiking, especially after Enron established how easily this could be accomplished in a similar market model.

This country would have been spared this damage and our economy might be in far better shape today if we had a Federally conformed 'leveling reserve tax' that kicks in when gas is more that $2.00 p/g at the Federal tax base level, and maintains gas at uniform $3.00 p/g. States with higher taxes would be protected by being pro-rated off the floor established by low tax states. The objective would be to fund a reserve fund that would pay down the oil futures market when gas futures start to rise above the $3.00 p/g mark. In other words, this fund would act as a funded market brake. A prudent and appropriate portion of the fund, once it reached a $1 Trillion reserve point, would be used to create incentive awards issued to major car manufacturers who succeeded in producing cars for market that meet or beat objective goals for energy efficiency. This competition would be free market provided the labor used for primary assembly was American made, not necessarily union. It would be analogous to the competitive bidding procedure that Airbus won over Boeing for the European consumer aircraft market .

Similarly, there is a better bottom that needs to be established for the spot diesel market, which seems prone to even greater market manipulation. But this will be the subject of a future post.

The main point is that taxation has to be used creatively to attain specific strategic objectives and dampen market volatility and artificial manipulation. The strategic petroleum reserve has been used as the fall-back tool for past gas crises and it is too cumbersome and blunt an instrument to accurately dampen and regulate this market.

jwp-nyc
December 7th 2008, 7:23 pm

I have to disagree carbon tax will not work but what we need to do is build an infrastructure for a natural gas commercial semi trucks. Therefore giving tax incentives to the companies who produce these vehicles instead of giving them a handout. At the same time giving credits to the companies who buy these vehicles so that the price of each vehicle should amount to the same price as a old fashioned semi truck. This would mean the United States would have to create natural gas filling stations for these new line of trucks, and if these stations are built as the same standard needed for hydrogen gas the country is left with an infrastructure that could be transformed to even a cleaning burning fuel without much change. This could help The Big Three (plus other automakers) by giving them incentives for being innovative instead of our government giving out handouts while ,us, the tax payers are not getting much in return. This would not only create a green infrastructure, it would also stimulate the job market, without punishing companies who do not want to comply, but giving companies who do comply incentives. (the carbon tax would only enrage the right wing and their ideals about the free market or the 700 billion dollar bailout.)

This would reduce the need on foreign oil causing oil pricing to fall, which in your book you explain gives the citizens in the oil rich nations more political power.

Alan R. Husum

Alan Husum
December 6th 2008, 8:57 pm

I don't know why it is obvious that a gasoline tax cannot or should not be implemented immediately:

1. Gasoline was more than $100/barrel more expensive less than a year ago, so we know it can be handled by the public and industry. While the economy is in a severe recession now, it wasn't a result of the gas price. A $10/barrel or $20/barrel tax would be nothing compared to recent history.

2. Gasoline prices may rise again so by taking gas tax off the table we aren't preventing a price increase.

3. The tax would encourage the continuation of sensible behavior by consumers and sensible investments by investors into efficiency, conservation, and alternative energy.

4. A gas tax is part of what Lakoff would call a "strategic initiative". It will actually have a positive effect on jobs, health, and security. The tax revenue can initially be put towards those industries impacted most immediately by the increase in the price of oil encouraging behavior in line with the strategic thinking (e.g. SUV plants get closed and the fed govt pays for retraining and retooling to make wind turbines and solar arrays).

5. A gas tax hits everyone in the US, so it is a well distributed policy initiative. The industries that it would hit are distributed all around the country.

6. And most importantly it hits MobilExxon and the Middle East because if the market can't bear a jump in net price they will have to reduce prices and therefore revenues. In the case of MobilExxon it will just reduce their windfall, and in the case of the Middle East if Mr. Friedman is right, it will increase democractic freedoms.

I would say Obama cannot afford NOT to impose an immediate gas tax. I would say as long as the media keeps a continual camera on the oil lobbyists attempting to meet with legislators and highlights them for their selfishness we can have a gas tax.

thx
Ed L.

Ed L.
December 6th 2008, 4:28 pm

Tom,

These are some possible strategies that come to mind to encourage the green revolution-

1.Reduce the thermostat by a degree during winter and increase it by a degree during the summer

2.Establish a metric for reduction in energy consumption and publish it once a week-break it up into-yearly,monthly,weekly targets-an MBO

3.Shut off the power for an hour a week if the energy reduction targets are not met-do it on a weekend so that families will spend more time together rather than watching tv

4.Shut off the a/c/heating on the weekends for office buildings

5.Encourage people to work from home-should cut down the gas consumption and electricity in the office

6.Continue outsourcing since there is a lower per capita energy consumption if the job is done from outside of America

7.Car Industry-Help only those companies that are committed to producing higher mileage cars-hybrid etc.

8.Use Facebook/Orkut etc. to spread the message

Sunil
December 6th 2008, 11:17 am

I have answered your article here:

http://www.pakspectator.com/response-to-thoma...

Asim
December 6th 2008, 2:57 am

I believe the question is: “Given the current critical issues and economic demands, etc., how can the new administration tackle the bigger goal?” What is needed is a STRATEGIC PLAN. The following is a process that gets you there. You need a team and a clear leader to own the outcome.

It starts with a VISION of where we need to be/get to. Under this vision create specific objectives which encompass the core elements of this vision. This becomes the “target” in my picture, and it’s on the right side.

Next, capture the Current Reality. Be as specific as you want, as broad as you want. Cover the concrete facts, the political realities, the failures, the successes, what’s helping toward the vision and what things are holding you back. This belongs on the left side of my picture. (Psychologically, you’ve created a powerful emotional need to get from Current Reality to the Vision.)

Next, visualize a big arrow moving from the Current Reality to the Vision/Objectives. This is to become the Strategic Plan to get you from where you are to where you want/need to be. The plan begins with what are the specific challenges you need to overcome and what are the issues needed to be dealt with. In the case of meeting the National and Global challenges, this list will be pretty scary and intimidating. At least you’ve got the list. Behind each of these you need to create realistic Action plans. Also, you’ll need to prioritize the work and determine just how you move forward. Making these choices becomes the Strategic Plan. As frustrations arise, which they definitely will, you’ll have to adjust and re-adjust, but you have your Vision to keep you on track.

That’s a thumbnail size sketch of the process. It’s best done with a team and its leader, and shared broadly. A really good, well-thought out and shared vision is an excellent tool for getting focus and alignment and OWNERSHIP on a strategic plan.

How would this impact on the National realities? Well, somethings will be done based on urgent needs. By steering the actions of these actions to be consistent with the strategic plan, it will be progress toward the Vision. Also, a key part of the Strategic Plan should be sharing the Vision broadly to get buy-in or at least an understanding of where the country is heading under the new leadership. I can easily visualize a TV special about 1 hour in length to share the Vision, review the current reality and share the elements of the Strategic Plan with the nation. This will cause a lot of national debate and discussion (“banter” was the word used in describing the discussions in the inns/taverns when the country was considering independence in the 18th century), that will create alignment (with some negative responses), focus and bring out the best in the people of this country, the real team that needs to execute this strategic plan.

A note on diversity: Not many people think strategically or long term. Most are much more comfortable with “baby steps” and just don’t see the future or their potential role in creating it. Most just don’t have the discipline to go through the process. However, they can recognize a good vision and plan when they see it, and rally behind it. The skeptics provide useful feedback. The realists (those who say it’s too hard/costly/you name it) can help identify the obstacles and how to move through them. Progress is infectious and feeds the process, brings the realists on the team and a few skeptics.

Fortunately, I believe President-elect Obama is a visionary individual (reflected in his campaign speeches). I also believe he can be an extraordinary leader, which we desperately need. The above is offered as a straightforward way to get the solutions we need to move forward as a country. I’ve facilitated this process in diverse groups (which is the best way to get a solid plan) with amazing and consistent success.

Bill Keeter
December 5th 2008, 12:25 pm

Why can't the federal government assume the health care obligations for current and retired auto workers instead of subsidizing R&D or whatever else the automakers are asking for? This could help them compete wiht international companies and get us on the way to rational health care system.

Stephen Fowler
December 4th 2008, 9:54 pm

As a world, as a community, and as individuals – we must all take part in the transformation to a sustainable and rejuvenating system. The technologies are ready for implementation – are you? It will take all your commitment, effort, passion, investment, and connections.

Buildings, specifically the heating and cooling of buildings, are the #1 consumer of fossil fuels and cause of greenhouse gas emissions worldwide. Transportation is second. With our focused attention, both are solvable now.

With clean electrons, energy efficiency, and conservation – the solution is two fold.

1. Abundant, clean, reliable, and cheap electrons are available RIGHT NOW through the conversion of every towns' wastewater treatment facility. When properly managed, every wastewater treatment facility creates a sustainable energy cycle through the continuous production of nutrient-rich organic fertilizer; and a source of abundant, clean, reliable, and cheap electricity. For details, read Free Electricity! at http://www.thenewgreeneconomy.org/news-inform...

2. By implementing the C.O.R.E. Technology at www.geo-gro.com, we can use the smart house model Tom outlined. The C.O.R.E. Technology is a revolutionary building template that completely eliminates the use of electricity to heat and cool new built structures, while greatly reducing the materials needed for construction, and able to withstand winds in excess of 250 mph; providing safe sanctuaries from hurricanes, tornadoes, and earthquakes. By eliminating heating and cooling needs, we reduce the energy costs of operating a building by as much as 66%. This in turn frees up the greatest amount of energy for more productive uses.

If you’re ready, so are we. If you really want to be the catalyst for a sustainable and rejuvenating society, email us at Sarah@geo-gro.com to see how you can support.

Sarah Perkins
December 4th 2008, 3:56 pm

Mr. Friedman,

Thank you for taking the time to read this letter as I’m sure you are in receipt of numerous notes like this on a daily basis. The members of our organization, Residential Hydrogen Power, are all avid readers of yours as you have obviously become the spokesperson for our green future. I can speak for our entire group that what you put on paper or speak to in various news mediums is exactly the direction we feel the world needs to move, not only in energy needs but every aspect of green consumption.

Mr. Friedman, as you’ve been working as hard as you have over the course of the last few years trying to educate the United States as well as the rest of the world on how The Green Revolution will be the 21st Century’s Industrial Revolution, our team here in Dayton, OH has been working with just as much passion and drive making unprecedented progress in the development of hydrogen production at the point of consumption (residential based). We understand the general public (and most people in the energy industry) seems to feel hydrogen is a generation or more away. We at Residential Hydrogen Power are here to tell you hydrogen production is ready now. Our technology is exactly what you describe in The World is Flat as a Globalization 3.0 product, one that is controlled by the consumer and producing at the consumer level. Our technology, made from truly renewable resources, is producing more pure hydrogen (and oxygen) than what even our wildest expectations were. The coincidence of your educating and our research and development is that we call our new product the ARK and in Hot, Flat and Crowded you named one of your chapters “A Million Noahs, a Million Arks”. Our motto is: “Turning the World Upside Down - One ARK at a Time”

As I stated at the beginning of this letter I am sure you receive countless inquires and requests to check out a product “that will change the world”. I realize there is a good chance this letter will fall into that bin as well. We at Residential Hydrogen Power are not looking for handouts or any other favors. We just thought you would like to learn more about a few individuals doing exactly what you say is necessary and “inventing and creating green technology in a garage somewhere in America”. And we think it has even more of a storybook tale since it is all happening in Dayton, OH, where the Wright Brothers changed the world with their little invention created in a bicycle shop down the street from where we are working. We feel our hydrogen technology can and will bring jobs back to this region, one known as the “rust belt” and we can reeducate and employ those being let go from the Globalization 2.0 industry quickly fading away in this old manufacturing town.

If you would like to come to the Gem City and see the technology you aspire for our future we would love to host you.

With kindest personal regards,

Mario Parisi and Mike Evers
Residential Hydrogen Power

mparisi@greennaturemktg.com

mike_evers24@hotmail.com

Mario Parisi and Mike Evers
December 4th 2008, 1:09 pm

Tom,
Congress needs to step up to the plate and do what we all know is right, even if we have to suffer the consequences. The drop in gas prices is a double-edged sword. As a college student, the drop in gas prices has helped me greatly, especially in the expenses to drive back home every once in a while. However, the recent drop has brought back some old habits that I wish it wouldn't have. I began driving my car to campus again. As I sit here in my humanities class my car is parked outside in the parking garage. I have taken the public bus all semester (it's free for students), and I loved saving the gas money, but it barely nudges my pocket now. I am aware that I am contributing to the problem, and unfortunately the only thing that will assure me going green again is if the prices go back up. I am sure most people can see this, but they're scared for their own financial security. I hope the Energy Revolution is not on a stand still because of this. We were making a lot of progress.
Thanks,
Jonathan

Jonathan Vidales
December 4th 2008, 12:10 pm

Thom
I also was disturbed by Omama's stand on a gas tax increase. A Price Signal is certainly a necessity for the transportation sector. However, the transportation, building, and industry sectors each need different solutions. A carbon tax would effect all 3, but additional incentives are needed for each. I'm a building energy consultant and our sector accounts for 76% of coal consumption, our most damaging and nastiest energy source. Many in our industry, including some major players have bought into the 2030 Challenge, which will make all new buildings carbon neutral by the year 2030. Edward Mazria has recently posted a proposed energy plan, the 2030 Blueprint, at architecture2030.org, which is focussed on eliminating all conventional coal plants by the the year 2030; while creating a lot of activity and jobs in the construction industry. The plan seems very achievable, requires minimal federal investment (21.6 billion over 5 years), and requires no price signals. Obama is an intelligent person, who thinks things through, and I believe he will act favorably on the 2030 Blueprint and other similar well thought out concise plans for other sectors. We all need to be involved in helping Obama make the right decisions.

Dennis Jones
December 4th 2008, 10:34 am

On Page 338 of "Hot, Flat and Crowded" Tom Friedman quotes Van Jones as proposing that the government put in place a program to "Weatherize the homes of of low income people. NOTE: This program already exists! It's called the WEATHERIZATION ASSISTANCE PROGRAM run by the department of energy. It is currently a 250 million dollar a year program run in all 50 states and even by Republican standards is judged the most effective government program ever created. The jobs are already here. All we have to due is scale up this program and create others to make Mr. Friedman's vision a realtiy.

Jeffrey Eichenwald
December 4th 2008, 8:58 am

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Hot, Flat, and Crowded 2.0
With the #1 bestseller The World Is Flat, he helped millions of readers see and understand globalization in a new way. Now Thomas L. Friedman explains how America can lead the green revolution in the 21st century.

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